MarketEdge PM Comments

Sep 13, 2023

(Allison Ryan)

Grains rebounded a bit after yesterday’s USDA WASDE report. December corn was up 5¾ and December ’24 was up 4½. November beans were up 3¼ and November ’24 was up 3¾. Wheat was also up 5-10.
  • Yesterday’s report pushed corn down towards the bottom end of our month-long trading range, but rebounded today, holding that support at $4.75.
  • There is some doubt yet that the USDA’s yield of 173.8 is still a little on the higher side, sending speculators into a bit of technical buying today.
  • Bean export expectations from Brazil continue to grow week over week.
  • The global wheat carryout is relatively tight; we haven’t seen this low of carryout since 2015, which could put some demand back on other grains.
  • The eastern corn belt should continue to be dry nearby, while the western corn belt could receive some precipitation; the 8 to14 day outlook looks warmer and wetter across the Midwest.
  • As combines get rolling, we’ll hear more and more numbers, but to date, there’s quite a bit of discrepancy even within fields of yield data.
  • Keep an eye on basis levels as river issues continue to plague the market and take advantage of any pops in the futures market to get more on the books.
  • The Dow and crude were slightly lower, and the Dollar was softer.
Have a great evening.

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