MarketEdge PM Comments
Sep 12, 2023
(Cody Forde)
Good afternoon, corn and soybeans both pushed lower post report. Corn last trade was 4.77 down 8^6 on the day. Soybean followed suit with a last trade of 13.44^6 down 24^2 on the session. Today’s WASDE report threw some traders for a loop with an increase in corn production but a decrease in yield. Let’s dive into some numbers.
On the corn side USDA raised harvested acres by 774,000 giving us a total of 87.096 million acres of corn to be harvested. Yield in the August report was 175.1 vs today’s report of 173.8 which is a decrease of 1.3 bushel per acre. Traders were hoping for a decrease of 1.7 bushel per acre but that did not materialize. Production stands out to me with an increase of 23 million bushel, which was one of the larger shockers from today’s report. Corn ending stocks came in larger than the trade had thought. Traders estimated that the USA had 2.134 billion bushels carry over, but the USDA showed we will have a larger carry over of 2.221 billion bushels. The big take away is we need some better export numbers and higher demand overall to reduce our US carry ending stocks.
Soybeans decreased both in production and yield. Soybean yield reduction came right in line with trade estimate of 50.1 per acre. The USDA August’s report had production at 4.205 billion bushels of soybeans, but today’s report showed a total production of 4.146 billion bushels. This is a decrease of 59 million bushel in soybean production. Overall, this should be supportive to US soybeans, but on the flip of the coin, tight ending stocks in the US doesn’t mean the world is running out of soybeans just yet. I would suggest watching for opportunities to make sales off the combine for soybeans.
Good afternoon, corn and soybeans both pushed lower post report. Corn last trade was 4.77 down 8^6 on the day. Soybean followed suit with a last trade of 13.44^6 down 24^2 on the session. Today’s WASDE report threw some traders for a loop with an increase in corn production but a decrease in yield. Let’s dive into some numbers.
On the corn side USDA raised harvested acres by 774,000 giving us a total of 87.096 million acres of corn to be harvested. Yield in the August report was 175.1 vs today’s report of 173.8 which is a decrease of 1.3 bushel per acre. Traders were hoping for a decrease of 1.7 bushel per acre but that did not materialize. Production stands out to me with an increase of 23 million bushel, which was one of the larger shockers from today’s report. Corn ending stocks came in larger than the trade had thought. Traders estimated that the USA had 2.134 billion bushels carry over, but the USDA showed we will have a larger carry over of 2.221 billion bushels. The big take away is we need some better export numbers and higher demand overall to reduce our US carry ending stocks.
Soybeans decreased both in production and yield. Soybean yield reduction came right in line with trade estimate of 50.1 per acre. The USDA August’s report had production at 4.205 billion bushels of soybeans, but today’s report showed a total production of 4.146 billion bushels. This is a decrease of 59 million bushel in soybean production. Overall, this should be supportive to US soybeans, but on the flip of the coin, tight ending stocks in the US doesn’t mean the world is running out of soybeans just yet. I would suggest watching for opportunities to make sales off the combine for soybeans.