MarketEdge AM Comments

Sep 21, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.  December corn finished the overnight session off 3 ¾ cents, settling at 4.7850.  November soybeans were off 17 cents, settling at 13.03.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is up 400 points, trading at 105.731.  November crude oil is off 31 cents, trading at $89.35 per barrel.  Precious metals are all lower.  Industrial metals are higher, except copper.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 237 points, trading at 34,492.  Soybean futures were under pressure overnight, garnering the lion’s share of trading volume and taking out a key technical support level.  Corn futures more or less followed along.  A sharply higher US Dollar Index overnight also weighed on commodities, in general.  This morning’s weekly Export Sales Report did not help to change the attitude in Chicago.  Weekly export sales figures reinforced the narrative of the dismal demand picture that the US is facing.  Last week, 566,900MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year.  This figure is only slightly above the lowest trade estimate and is nearly 200,000MT lower than the previous week’s sales.  Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 602,500MT.  Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, China, Guatemala, and Honduras.  Last week, 434,1000MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year.  This figure is over 100,000MT lower than the lowest trade estimate and is over 250,000MT lower than the previous week’s sales.  Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 544,900MT.  Primary destinations were China, Japan, Mexico, Indonesia, and the Netherlands.  Yesterday, the funds bought 5000 contracts of corn, bought 4000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 4000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 138,160 contracts of corn, net long 55,475 contracts of soybeans, and net short 87,230 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.78, followed by the two-year contract low charted on Tuesday, 4.6775.  Initial resistance is at 4.83, yesterday’s high, followed by 4.8675, the double-high charted last Monday and Tuesday, and then 4.9025, the three-week high charted on September 6th.  November soybeans dipped below key support at the double-low from August 15th and 16th which was also the five-week low, 13.03, overnight, charting a new five-week low at 13.02.  Those two levels stand as initial support, followed immediately by the psychological 13.00 mark, and then the 2 ½ month contract low charted on August 8th, 12.8225.  Initial resistance is at yesterday’s high, 13.2275, followed by 13.50, and then Friday’s high, 13.6775.  Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday.

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