MarketEdge AM Comments

Sep 11, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight.  December corn finished the overnight session up 1 ¾ cents, settling at 4.8550.  November soybeans were up 6 ¾ cents, settling at 13.6975.  In the outside markets, as of 7:50am:  The US Dollar Index is off 430 points, trading at 104.662.  October crude oil is off 31 cents, trading at $87.20 per barrel.  Precious metals are all higher.  Industrial metals are lower, except copper.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 66 points, trading at 35,000.  The anticipation of lower crop conditions ratings this afternoon and lowered carryout projections on tomorrow’s WASDE Report supported futures overnight.  Corn and soybean crop conditions ratings are expected to slip one or two points this afternoon when USDA releases the weekly Crop Progress and Conditions Report.  Tomorrow’s report is much more important.  Traders are expecting USDA to lower national average yield estimates for both corn and soybeans, resulting in lower carryout figures for both commodities.  Of particular concern is the soybean balance sheet given how incredibly tight it already is.  Of course, as with any major government report, it’s anyone’s guess what they will decide to publish.  We just have to be patient and we will all find out together tomorrow morning at 11am.  On Friday, the funds sold 2000 contracts of corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 2000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 98,190 contracts of corn, net long 77,480 contracts of soybeans, and net short 86,140 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, corn and soybean futures remain hopelessly range-bound.  Tomorrow’s report will likely determine whether or not futures can break out of their respective ranges and to which direction.  December corn finds initial support at 4.82, Friday’s low, followed by the two-year contract low charted on August 16th, 4.7350.  Initial resistance is at 4.9025, last week’s high charted on Wednesday, followed by the August 29th high, 4.9950, and the psychological 5.00 mark.  November soybeans find initial support at the 2 ½ week low charted on Friday, 13.5250, followed immediately by 13.50, and then 13.3250, the three-week low charted on August 23rd.  Initial resistance is at 13.7175, the overnight high, followed by 13.85, the September 1st high, and then the key 14.00 mark.  Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Monday.

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