MarketEdge AM Comments
Sep 06, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. December corn finished the overnight session up a penny and a half, settling at 4.8750. November soybeans were up 12 cents, settling at 13.77. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 90 points, trading at 104.719. October crude oil is off 16 cents, trading at $86.53 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 84 points, trading at 34,596. Soybeans were the upside leader overnight with light trading volume. Futures were supported by larger-than-expected reductions in crop conditions ratings on yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report. The national corn crop condition rating was lowered by 3% from last week, to 53% good to excellent. This figure is one point below the average trade estimate, is one point below last year at this time, and is seven points below the five-year average. The national soybean crop condition rating was lowered by five points from last week, to 53% good to excellent. This figure is two points below the average trade estimate, is four points below last year at this time, and is seven points below the five-year average. Aside from the Crop Progress and Conditions Report, fresh news regarding grains and oilseeds was limited overnight. Traders are more or less in a holding pattern until harvest kicks off, which will likely be very soon. By the middle of September, expect the trade to be in full blown harvest mode, monitoring true yield reports from the field and reacting accordingly. In the meantime, StoneX will be out with their updated yield and production forecast this afternoon and USDA will update their balance sheets on Tuesday with the release of the September WASDE Report. Yesterday, the funds bought 5000 contracts of corn, sold 1000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 2000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 87,130 contracts of corn, net long 67,890 contracts of soybeans, and net short 80,810 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.85, followed by 4.80, and then the two-year contract ow charted on August 16th, 4.7350. Initial resistance is at the overnight high, 4.8950, followed by 4.9950, last week’s high charted on Tuesday, and then of course the psychological 5.00 mark. November soybeans find initial support at 13.70, the overnight low, followed by the two-week low charted yesterday, 13.58, and then 13.50. Initial resistance is at 13.81, the overnight high, followed by the psychological 14.00 level, and then 14.0950, the one-month high charted last Monday. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Wednesday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. December corn finished the overnight session up a penny and a half, settling at 4.8750. November soybeans were up 12 cents, settling at 13.77. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 90 points, trading at 104.719. October crude oil is off 16 cents, trading at $86.53 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 84 points, trading at 34,596. Soybeans were the upside leader overnight with light trading volume. Futures were supported by larger-than-expected reductions in crop conditions ratings on yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report. The national corn crop condition rating was lowered by 3% from last week, to 53% good to excellent. This figure is one point below the average trade estimate, is one point below last year at this time, and is seven points below the five-year average. The national soybean crop condition rating was lowered by five points from last week, to 53% good to excellent. This figure is two points below the average trade estimate, is four points below last year at this time, and is seven points below the five-year average. Aside from the Crop Progress and Conditions Report, fresh news regarding grains and oilseeds was limited overnight. Traders are more or less in a holding pattern until harvest kicks off, which will likely be very soon. By the middle of September, expect the trade to be in full blown harvest mode, monitoring true yield reports from the field and reacting accordingly. In the meantime, StoneX will be out with their updated yield and production forecast this afternoon and USDA will update their balance sheets on Tuesday with the release of the September WASDE Report. Yesterday, the funds bought 5000 contracts of corn, sold 1000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 2000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 87,130 contracts of corn, net long 67,890 contracts of soybeans, and net short 80,810 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.85, followed by 4.80, and then the two-year contract ow charted on August 16th, 4.7350. Initial resistance is at the overnight high, 4.8950, followed by 4.9950, last week’s high charted on Tuesday, and then of course the psychological 5.00 mark. November soybeans find initial support at 13.70, the overnight low, followed by the two-week low charted yesterday, 13.58, and then 13.50. Initial resistance is at 13.81, the overnight high, followed by the psychological 14.00 level, and then 14.0950, the one-month high charted last Monday. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Wednesday.