MarketEdge AM Comments
Sep 29, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. It is Report Day. At 11am, USDA will release the highly anticipated Quarterly Stocks Report. Overnight, corn and soybean futures were slightly lower. December corn finished the overnight session off ¾ of a penny, settling at 4.8775. November soybeans were off a half of a penny, settling at 13.00. In the outside markets, as of 7:30am: The US Dollar Index is off 400 points, trading at 105.824. November crude oil is up $1.28, trading at $92.99 per barrel. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are higher, except tin. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 160 points, trading at 34,052. Traders are bracing themselves for what could be a roller-coaster ride after the release of the September 1st stocks figures at 11am. Stocks reports are notoriously hard to predict and the ranges of trade expectations for the figures on today’s report are wide. So, it’s really anybody’s guess what USDA will decide to come up with this morning. This particular stocks report is of considerable importance as the figures reported today will also serve as the final carryout projections for the 2022/23 crop year. In the past, there have been some big surprises on the September Stocks Report. This phenomenon is rather interesting and aggravating since we spend the entire year poring over monthly Supply and Demand Reports whose little twists and turns in usage and supply figures are supposed to help the trade to extrapolate an estimate for the final carryout figure. How is it that sometimes the government misses the mark by a surprising amount when it comes down to the actual final carryout figure when we have had twelve months to figure it out? Your guess is as good as mine! The average trade estimate for September 1st corn stocks is 1.429 billion bushels. The range of trade estimates is from 1.32 to 1.487 billion bushels and the September WASDE Report forecasted a carryout projection of 1.452 billion bushels. The average trade estimate for September 1st soybean stocks is 242 million bushels. The range of trade estimates is from 216 to 270 million bushels and the September WASDE Report forecasted a carryout projection of 250 million bushels. So, buckle your seatbelts and be ready for anything at 11am when USDA releases the report! Yesterday, the funds bought 5000 contracts of corn, sold 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 1000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 141,455 contracts of corn, net long 35,415 contracts of soybeans, and net short 104,950 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, December corn came dangerously close to testing the high for the month overnight, charting a high at 4.8975. That level, followed immediately by the high for the month charted on the 6th, 4.9025, stand as initial resistance, followed by the August 29th high, 4.9950, and the psychological 5.00 mark. Initial support lies at 4.80, followed by 4.7375, Monday’s low, and then the two-year contract low charted last Tuesday, 4.6775. November soybeans face initial resistance at Wednesday’s high, 13.17, followed by last Wednesday’s high, 13.2275, and then the 13.50 area. Initial support lies at the psychological 13.00 level, followed by 12.87, yesterday’s low, and then 12.8450, the seven-week low charted on Monday. Opening calls are steady/mixed.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.
Good Morning. It is Report Day. At 11am, USDA will release the highly anticipated Quarterly Stocks Report. Overnight, corn and soybean futures were slightly lower. December corn finished the overnight session off ¾ of a penny, settling at 4.8775. November soybeans were off a half of a penny, settling at 13.00. In the outside markets, as of 7:30am: The US Dollar Index is off 400 points, trading at 105.824. November crude oil is up $1.28, trading at $92.99 per barrel. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are higher, except tin. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 160 points, trading at 34,052. Traders are bracing themselves for what could be a roller-coaster ride after the release of the September 1st stocks figures at 11am. Stocks reports are notoriously hard to predict and the ranges of trade expectations for the figures on today’s report are wide. So, it’s really anybody’s guess what USDA will decide to come up with this morning. This particular stocks report is of considerable importance as the figures reported today will also serve as the final carryout projections for the 2022/23 crop year. In the past, there have been some big surprises on the September Stocks Report. This phenomenon is rather interesting and aggravating since we spend the entire year poring over monthly Supply and Demand Reports whose little twists and turns in usage and supply figures are supposed to help the trade to extrapolate an estimate for the final carryout figure. How is it that sometimes the government misses the mark by a surprising amount when it comes down to the actual final carryout figure when we have had twelve months to figure it out? Your guess is as good as mine! The average trade estimate for September 1st corn stocks is 1.429 billion bushels. The range of trade estimates is from 1.32 to 1.487 billion bushels and the September WASDE Report forecasted a carryout projection of 1.452 billion bushels. The average trade estimate for September 1st soybean stocks is 242 million bushels. The range of trade estimates is from 216 to 270 million bushels and the September WASDE Report forecasted a carryout projection of 250 million bushels. So, buckle your seatbelts and be ready for anything at 11am when USDA releases the report! Yesterday, the funds bought 5000 contracts of corn, sold 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 1000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 141,455 contracts of corn, net long 35,415 contracts of soybeans, and net short 104,950 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, December corn came dangerously close to testing the high for the month overnight, charting a high at 4.8975. That level, followed immediately by the high for the month charted on the 6th, 4.9025, stand as initial resistance, followed by the August 29th high, 4.9950, and the psychological 5.00 mark. Initial support lies at 4.80, followed by 4.7375, Monday’s low, and then the two-year contract low charted last Tuesday, 4.6775. November soybeans face initial resistance at Wednesday’s high, 13.17, followed by last Wednesday’s high, 13.2275, and then the 13.50 area. Initial support lies at the psychological 13.00 level, followed by 12.87, yesterday’s low, and then 12.8450, the seven-week low charted on Monday. Opening calls are steady/mixed.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.