MarketEdge AM Comments

Sep 28, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.  December corn finished the overnight session off a penny and a half, settling at 4.8175.  November soybeans were off 9 cents, settling at 12.9425.  In the outside markets, as of 7:35am:  The US Dollar Index is off 330 points, trading at 106.333.  November crude oil is off 52 cents, trading at $93.16 per barrel.  Precious metals are all higher.  Industrial metals are lower, except copper.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 59 points, trading at 33,850.  Corn and soybean futures were under pressure overnight after running into technical chart resistance yesterday.  Corn futures tested the 40-day moving average and soybean futures ran into the 100-day moving average yesterday and both failed to push through those important chart indicators.  Tomorrow, USDA will release the highly anticipated Quarterly Stocks Report.  Stocks reports are notoriously hard to predict.  As such, historically they can elicit market volatility depending on where the official figures end up.  The ranges of trade estimates for September 1st corn and soybean stocks are quite wide, so even seasoned traders are having a hard time dialing in what they think is up USDA’s sleeve.  These particular stocks figures are incredibly important compared to other quarterly stocks reports since they also serve as the final old crop carryout figure because the previous crop year ended on September 1st.  So, key over and under figures to watch for on tomorrow’s report are last month’s carryout projections.  The corn and soybean carryout projections on the August WASDE Report were 1.452 billion bushels and 250 million bushels, respectively.  This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report.  Weekly corn and soybean sales bookings were much improved from the previous week’s sales, however, they still weren’t incredibly impressive.  Last week, 841,800MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year.  This figure is in the middle of the range of trade estimates and is over 250,000MT higher than the previous week’s sales.  Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 730,000MT.  Primary destinations were Mexico, Colombia, China, Japan, and Taiwan.  Last week, 672,200MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year.  This figure is on the lower end of the range of trade estimates but is over 200,000MT higher than the previous week’s sales.  Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 543,300MT.  Primary destinations were China, Japan, the Netherlands, Egypt, and Tunisia.  Yesterday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, bought 1000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 5000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 146,455 contracts of corn, net long 37,415 contracts of soybeans, and net short 103,950 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, December corn faces initial resistance at the triple-high from yesterday, September 11th, and September 12th, 4.8675, followed by 4.9025, the high for the month charted on the 6th.  Initial support lies at 4.80, followed by Monday’s low, 4.7375, and then the two-year contract low charted last Tuesday, 4.6775.  November soybeans face initial resistance at the psychological 13.00 level, followed by yesterday’s high, 13.17, and then last Wednesday’s high, 13.2275.  Initial support lies in the 12.90 area, followed by the seven-week low charted on Monday, 12.8450, and then the three-month low charted on August 8th, 12.8225.  Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday.

Read More News

Sep 30, 2023
Grains ended up in the red headed into the weekend.
Sep 29, 2023
Good Morning.  It is Report Day.  At 11am, USDA will release the highly anticipated Quarterly Stocks Report. 
Sep 27, 2023
Corn and beans closed up, although off their highs of the day.