MarketEdge AM Comments
Sep 26, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn futures were lower and soybean futures were higher overnight. December corn finished the overnight session off a penny, settling at 4.8025. November soybeans were up 2 ¾ cents, settling at 13.0050. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 70 points, trading at 105.926. November crude oil is off 49 cents, trading at $89.19 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 145 points, trading at 34,128. Soybean futures attempted a feeble recovery overnight while corn futures remain stuck in the mud, trapped in an extremely tight trading range. Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report was helpful to soybean futures overnight. The national soybean crop condition rating was lowered by two points from last week, to 50% good to excellent. This figure is five points behind last year at this time and is ten points below the five-year average. Meanwhile, the national corn crop condition rating improved by two points from last week, to 53% good to excellent. The national corn harvest was reported to be 15% complete and the national soybean harvest was reported to be 12% complete. Both of these figures are ahead of five-year averages for this week of the year. The next key government report that traders are anticipating will be released on Friday, the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. This report will show stocks as of September 1st. Since September 1st is not only the end of the quarter but the end of the crop year, September 1st grain stocks also adjust the carryout figures for the crop year. The average trade estimates call for a corn stocks figure of 1.429 billion bushels and a soybean stocks figure of 242 million bushels. The last WASDE Report projected corn and soybean carryout projections of 1.452 billion bushels and 250 million bushels, respectively. Yesterday, the funds bought 3000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 5000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 146,455 contracts of corn, net long 33,415 contracts of soybeans, and net short 99,950 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at 4.8350, the double-high from overnight and September 15th, followed closely by 4.8675, the double-high from September 11th and 12th, and then 4.9025, the high for the month charted on the 6th. Initial support lies at 4.7875, the overnight low, followed by yesterday’s low, 4.7375, and then 4.6775, the two-year contract low charted one week ago. November soybeans face initial resistance at the psychological 13.00 mark, followed by 13.0775, the overnight high, and then Wednesday’s high, 13.2275. Initial support lies at 12.8450, the seven-week low charted yesterday, followed closely by the three-month low charted on August 8th, 12.8225, and then 12.5675, the three-plus month low charted on June 28th. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Tuesday.
Good Morning. Corn futures were lower and soybean futures were higher overnight. December corn finished the overnight session off a penny, settling at 4.8025. November soybeans were up 2 ¾ cents, settling at 13.0050. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 70 points, trading at 105.926. November crude oil is off 49 cents, trading at $89.19 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 145 points, trading at 34,128. Soybean futures attempted a feeble recovery overnight while corn futures remain stuck in the mud, trapped in an extremely tight trading range. Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report was helpful to soybean futures overnight. The national soybean crop condition rating was lowered by two points from last week, to 50% good to excellent. This figure is five points behind last year at this time and is ten points below the five-year average. Meanwhile, the national corn crop condition rating improved by two points from last week, to 53% good to excellent. The national corn harvest was reported to be 15% complete and the national soybean harvest was reported to be 12% complete. Both of these figures are ahead of five-year averages for this week of the year. The next key government report that traders are anticipating will be released on Friday, the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. This report will show stocks as of September 1st. Since September 1st is not only the end of the quarter but the end of the crop year, September 1st grain stocks also adjust the carryout figures for the crop year. The average trade estimates call for a corn stocks figure of 1.429 billion bushels and a soybean stocks figure of 242 million bushels. The last WASDE Report projected corn and soybean carryout projections of 1.452 billion bushels and 250 million bushels, respectively. Yesterday, the funds bought 3000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 5000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 146,455 contracts of corn, net long 33,415 contracts of soybeans, and net short 99,950 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at 4.8350, the double-high from overnight and September 15th, followed closely by 4.8675, the double-high from September 11th and 12th, and then 4.9025, the high for the month charted on the 6th. Initial support lies at 4.7875, the overnight low, followed by yesterday’s low, 4.7375, and then 4.6775, the two-year contract low charted one week ago. November soybeans face initial resistance at the psychological 13.00 mark, followed by 13.0775, the overnight high, and then Wednesday’s high, 13.2275. Initial support lies at 12.8450, the seven-week low charted yesterday, followed closely by the three-month low charted on August 8th, 12.8225, and then 12.5675, the three-plus month low charted on June 28th. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Tuesday.