MarketEdge AM Comments

Sep 05, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.  December corn finished the overnight session off a penny, settling at 4.8050.  November soybeans were off 5 ¼ cents, settling at 13.64.  In the outside markets, as of 7:45am:  The US Dollar Index is up 580 points, trading at 104.820.  October crude oil is off 21 cents, trading at $85.34 per barrel.  Precious metals are all lower.  Industrial metals are lower, except tin.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 50 points, trading at 34,832.  Futures were under pressure overnight in light of the US Midwest weather forecast and a sharply higher US Dollar Index.  After one more day of scorching temperatures across the heart of the Corn Belt today, temperatures are expected to moderate for the next several days.  Of course, at this stage of the game, one has to question whether or not this shift in the forecast is “too little, too late.”  Nonetheless, the attitude in Chicago is a “risk-off” approach.  With the removal of weather risk, the path of least resistance is lower, especially this time of the year with full-swing harvest fast approaching.  Hand-shelled corn samples are already coming in at 25% moisture or lower across the Corn Belt, signaling that harvest is indeed right around the corner.  Aside from the aforementioned, fresh news regarding grain and oilseed futures is limited this morning.  On Friday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, were net even on soybeans, and sold 2000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 92,130 contracts of corn, net long 68,890 contracts of soybeans, and net short 82,810 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at 4.80, followed by the two-year contract low charted on August 16th, 4.7350.  Initial resistance is at 4.86, the overnight high, followed by last week’s high charted on Tuesday, 4.9950, followed immediately by the psychological 5.00 mark.  November soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.6175, followed by 13.50, and then the August 23rd low, 13.3250.  Initial resistance is at the overnight high, 13.7650, followed by the psychological 14.00 level, and then 14.0950, the one-month high charted last Monday.  Opening calls are mixed/lower.
Have a great Tuesday.

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