MarketEdge PM Comments

Nov 15, 2023

(Allison Ryan)

Grains were down today, with the exception of new crop beans. December corn was down 7½ and December ’24 was down 5¾. January beans were down 4¾, while November ’24 beans were up 2½. Wheat was also down 8-12.
  • Beans tested that $14 level off the January board on the overnights, but pushed down following soybean meal, which was also down today; with funds being long, a little bit of profit taking hit that market today with little follow through on the overnight highs.
  • The NOPA crush report came out with 189.8 million bushel usage in October, higher than any month on record; unfortunately, any domestic use is canceled out with lack of overseas demand (especially after February).
  • There’s some rain forecasted in the dryer parts of Brazil- the Mato Grasso area; if these rains are missed, we may see some more premium come back into this market.
  • Corn supply is still pretty burdensome and pushed down today following beans; lack of Chinese buying gives little hope to the nearby market, despite Mexico coming to the table with a flash sale announced today.
  • The inflation month over month has backed off significantly- all indications show that the Feds will not be raising interest rates nearby, with the current interest rates doing its job to curb inflation.
  • The Mississippi River is dropping water levels significantly again, with it potentially being down 10 ft below normal by Thanksgiving.
  • A few things to keep an eye on- if you have any December hedges, consider rolling those out and capturing the carry; we are towards the top of our January trade range on beans- consider getting some more old crop beans on the books as we enter a time frame where US prices typically benefit from being the main bean provider to China until South America comes to the table in February; push the pencil and figure out 2024 break evens as we lock in fertilizer, and consider locking in some 2024 sales in order to cover those expenses
  • The Dow was higher, crude was lower, and the Dollar was firmer.
Have a great evening.

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