MarketEdge PM Comments
Nov 07, 2023
(Cody Forde)
Good afternoon,
Corn pulled soybeans down after what looked like a technical breakthrough. December corn last trade was 469^0 down 8^2. January soybeans last trade was 1363^0 down 1^0. We had a flash export sale to China that consisted of two cargo ships. We need to keep seeing some of this business on the soybean side to keep pulling us higher. After the news broke January soybeans ran higher and hit 13.80. Along with that excitement July soybeans jumped over 14 dollars but were not able to hold into the close. Is this just a pull back and we run higher? I think that could be the case. I am watching to see if we can hold the 13.60 level into a Friday close which would be very positive for the complex. Corn was week despite the strength and soybeans, which then pulled the whole grain complex lower. If corn can’t hold its lows, we are at risk of a washout into the 4.50 range. I would like to see corn close above the 4.70 on Friday to see if we can push to the higher end of the range.
Thursday, we have the November WASDE report. The trade guess is we’ll see a small increase of corn yield from 173 to 173.4. which would then add up to another 33 million bushels to the ending stocks. Global ending stocks for corn look to be stable. With very little changes coming from the USDA. The trade guess for soybean yield looks to be stable with last month at 49.6. While soybeans ending stock could increase 5 million bushel which would have a minimal impact on the balance sheet as we are close to pipeline levels in the US. Global ending stocks look to move slightly lower which will be a small impact. Overall, this report should be neutral to bullish for soybean and neutral to slightly bearish for corn.
Good afternoon,
Corn pulled soybeans down after what looked like a technical breakthrough. December corn last trade was 469^0 down 8^2. January soybeans last trade was 1363^0 down 1^0. We had a flash export sale to China that consisted of two cargo ships. We need to keep seeing some of this business on the soybean side to keep pulling us higher. After the news broke January soybeans ran higher and hit 13.80. Along with that excitement July soybeans jumped over 14 dollars but were not able to hold into the close. Is this just a pull back and we run higher? I think that could be the case. I am watching to see if we can hold the 13.60 level into a Friday close which would be very positive for the complex. Corn was week despite the strength and soybeans, which then pulled the whole grain complex lower. If corn can’t hold its lows, we are at risk of a washout into the 4.50 range. I would like to see corn close above the 4.70 on Friday to see if we can push to the higher end of the range.
Thursday, we have the November WASDE report. The trade guess is we’ll see a small increase of corn yield from 173 to 173.4. which would then add up to another 33 million bushels to the ending stocks. Global ending stocks for corn look to be stable. With very little changes coming from the USDA. The trade guess for soybean yield looks to be stable with last month at 49.6. While soybeans ending stock could increase 5 million bushel which would have a minimal impact on the balance sheet as we are close to pipeline levels in the US. Global ending stocks look to move slightly lower which will be a small impact. Overall, this report should be neutral to bullish for soybean and neutral to slightly bearish for corn.