MarketEdge AM Comments

Nov 16, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.  December corn finished the overnight session off 1 ¾ cents, settling at 4.69.  January soybeans were off 9 ¾ cents, settling at 13.7525.  In the outside markets, as of 7:30am:  The US Dollar Index is up 50 points, trading at 104.447.  December crude oil is off 38 cents, trading at $76.28 per barrel.  Precious metals are higher, except palladium.  Industrial metals are all higher.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 63 points, trading at 34,987.  Yesterday, overnight, and this morning traders shrugged off news items supportive to grains and oilseeds.  Instead, an improving forecast that calls for rains for the driest parts of Brazil and failure on the charts to push through key resistance levels have encouraged profit-taking.  Yesterday, the National Oilseed Processors’ Association released their October crush report.  In October, 189.8 million bushels of soybeans were crushed.  This figure beats the previous monthly crush record set in December 2021 by 3.4 million bushels and exceeds the average trade estimate by 2.6 million bushels!  This morning’s weekly Export Sales Report featured impressive weekly corn and soybean sales figures.  Unfortunately, any reaction to this morning’s report was muted as traders expected the huge sales figures ahead of time as a result of daily flash sales announcements.  Last week, 1,807,500MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year.  This figure is over 250,000MT higher than the highest trade estimate, is 78% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 81% higher than the prior four-week average.  Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 683,100MT.  This figure is 17% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 17% higher than the prior four-week average.  Primary destinations were Mexico, Colombia, Honduras, Canada, and Japan.  Last week, 3,918,400MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year.  This figure is a marketing-year high, is up noticeably from both the previous week’s sales and the prior four-week average, and is on the upper end of the range of trade estimates.  The lion’s share of these sales (over 3.3MMT) were to China and “unknown destinations” (likely China).  Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,991,300MT.  This figure is 11% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 7% lower than the prior four-week average.  Primary destinations were China, the Netherlands, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam.  Yesterday, the funds sold 3000 contracts of corn, sold 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 174,065 contracts of corn, net long 81,775 contracts of soybeans, and net short 104,200 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at 4.6725, yesterday’s low, followed by the multi-year contract low charted on Monday, 4.61.  Initial resistance is at 4.74, the overnight high, followed by a cluster of resistance from 4.80 to 4.8125, which includes the highs from yesterday, Tuesday, November 8th, 6th, and 3rd.  January soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.7075, followed by Monday’s chart gap, 13.4975-13.5025, and then last week’s low charted on Thursday, 13.36.  Initial resistance is at 13.8775, the overnight high, followed 13.9850, the 2 ½ month high charted yesterday, and then the psychological 14.00 level.  Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday. 

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