MarketEdge AM Comments
Nov 09, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. It is Report Day. At 11am, USDA will release the November WASDE Report. Overnight, corn and soybean futures were lower. December corn finished the overnight session off 3 ½ cents, settling at 4.7250. January soybeans were off 3 ½ cents, settling at 13.6225. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 60 points, trading at 105.650. December crude oil is up 87 cents, trading at $76.20 per barrel. Precious metals are lower, except platinum. Industrial metals are higher, except aluminum. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 66 points, trading at 34,239. Soybean futures were the upside leader again yesterday, however, for the second consecutive session, momentum faltered during the trading session and futures ended up closing disappointingly lower than expected at the outset. This chart behavior suggests that there just might not be enough fuel in the tank to push January futures back to the 14.00 area at this time. Meanwhile, corn futures remain absolutely stuck in the mud, following soybeans sometimes and other times just doing their own thing. All the while, they are trading at the bottom end of the trading range established three months ago. Before we get to discussing today’s WASDE Report, USDA released another important report at 7:30am this morning, the weekly Export Sales Report. Corn sales bookings were much improved week-over-week while soybean sales bookings were more or less status quo. Last week, 1,015,300MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is within the range of trade estimates, is 36% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 4% higher than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 824,900MT. This figure is a marketing-year high, is up 63% from the previous week’s shipments, and is 42% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Colombia, Canada, Honduras, and Japan. Last week, 1,080,200MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is within the range of trade estimates, is 7% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 8% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 2,237,200MT. This figure is 12% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 16% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Mexico, Germany, the Netherlands, and Taiwan. When looking at average trade expectations, minimal changes are expected on the corn and soybean balance sheets when USDA releases the WASDE Report at 11am, however, the ranges of trade estimates leave plenty of possibilities. The range of trade estimates for the corn yield figure is 172bpa to 175.7bpa. Last month’s yield projection was 173bpa. The range of trade estimates for the soybean yield figure is 49bpa to 50.3bpa. Last month’s yield projection was 49.6bpa. The range of trade estimates for the corn carryout projection is 1.996 to 2.498 billion bushels. Last month’s carryout projection was 2.111 billion bushels. The range of trade estimates for the soybean carryout projection is 175 to 255 million bushels. Last month’s carryout projection was 220 million bushels. So, those are some figures to keep in mind when the report is published. Yesterday, the funds bought 4000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 12,000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 146,140 contracts of corn, net long 43,120 contracts of soybeans, and net short 91,840 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at 4.72, the overnight low, followed by the double-low from Tuesday and Friday and the multi-year contract low charted on September 19th, 4.68 and 4.6775, respectively. Initial resistance is found from 4.8050 to 4.8125, which includes the highs from yesterday, Monday, and Friday, followed by 4.8425, the double-high charted on October 26th and 30th. January soybeans find initial support at 13.5950, the overnight low, followed by 13.50, and then the psychological 13.00 mark. Initial resistance is at 13.73, the overnight high, followed by 13.8450, the two-month high charted yesterday, and then the psychological 14.00 level. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. It is Report Day. At 11am, USDA will release the November WASDE Report. Overnight, corn and soybean futures were lower. December corn finished the overnight session off 3 ½ cents, settling at 4.7250. January soybeans were off 3 ½ cents, settling at 13.6225. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 60 points, trading at 105.650. December crude oil is up 87 cents, trading at $76.20 per barrel. Precious metals are lower, except platinum. Industrial metals are higher, except aluminum. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 66 points, trading at 34,239. Soybean futures were the upside leader again yesterday, however, for the second consecutive session, momentum faltered during the trading session and futures ended up closing disappointingly lower than expected at the outset. This chart behavior suggests that there just might not be enough fuel in the tank to push January futures back to the 14.00 area at this time. Meanwhile, corn futures remain absolutely stuck in the mud, following soybeans sometimes and other times just doing their own thing. All the while, they are trading at the bottom end of the trading range established three months ago. Before we get to discussing today’s WASDE Report, USDA released another important report at 7:30am this morning, the weekly Export Sales Report. Corn sales bookings were much improved week-over-week while soybean sales bookings were more or less status quo. Last week, 1,015,300MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is within the range of trade estimates, is 36% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 4% higher than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 824,900MT. This figure is a marketing-year high, is up 63% from the previous week’s shipments, and is 42% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Colombia, Canada, Honduras, and Japan. Last week, 1,080,200MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is within the range of trade estimates, is 7% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 8% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 2,237,200MT. This figure is 12% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 16% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Mexico, Germany, the Netherlands, and Taiwan. When looking at average trade expectations, minimal changes are expected on the corn and soybean balance sheets when USDA releases the WASDE Report at 11am, however, the ranges of trade estimates leave plenty of possibilities. The range of trade estimates for the corn yield figure is 172bpa to 175.7bpa. Last month’s yield projection was 173bpa. The range of trade estimates for the soybean yield figure is 49bpa to 50.3bpa. Last month’s yield projection was 49.6bpa. The range of trade estimates for the corn carryout projection is 1.996 to 2.498 billion bushels. Last month’s carryout projection was 2.111 billion bushels. The range of trade estimates for the soybean carryout projection is 175 to 255 million bushels. Last month’s carryout projection was 220 million bushels. So, those are some figures to keep in mind when the report is published. Yesterday, the funds bought 4000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 12,000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 146,140 contracts of corn, net long 43,120 contracts of soybeans, and net short 91,840 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at 4.72, the overnight low, followed by the double-low from Tuesday and Friday and the multi-year contract low charted on September 19th, 4.68 and 4.6775, respectively. Initial resistance is found from 4.8050 to 4.8125, which includes the highs from yesterday, Monday, and Friday, followed by 4.8425, the double-high charted on October 26th and 30th. January soybeans find initial support at 13.5950, the overnight low, followed by 13.50, and then the psychological 13.00 mark. Initial resistance is at 13.73, the overnight high, followed by 13.8450, the two-month high charted yesterday, and then the psychological 14.00 level. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday.