MarketEdge AM Comments

Nov 07, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn futures were lower and soybean futures were higher overnight.  December corn finished the overnight session off 3 ¾ cents, settling at 4.7350.  January soybeans were up 2 ¼ cents, settling at 13.6625.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is up 440 points, trading at 105.650.  December crude oil is off $1.79, trading at $79.03 per barrel.  Precious metals are all lower.  Industrial metals are higher, except copper.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 74 points, trading at 34,090.  The recent rally in soybean futures lost some momentum overnight, tempered by a strong US Dollar, sharply lower crude oil futures, harvest pressure, and the anticipation of very little change to the balance sheet on Thursday’s report.  Yesterday afternoon, USDA reported that the US corn harvest is 81% complete.  This figure is a 10-point advancement from last week and is four points ahead of the five-year average.  The national soybean harvest was reported to be 91% complete.  This figure is a six-point advancement from last week and is five points ahead of the five-year average.  On Thursday, USDA will release the November WASDE Report.  Traders do not expect major changes to production, usage, and carryout estimates on Thursday’s report when looking at the average trade guesses, however, the ranges of trade expectations are rather wide so anything is possible.  Yesterday, the funds bought 1000 contracts of corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 1000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 145,140 contracts of corn, net long 43,120 contracts of soybeans, and net short 101,840 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.72, followed by the 1 ½ month low charted on Friday and the multi-year contract low charted on September 19th, 4.68 and 4.6775, respectively.  Initial resistance is at 4.80, followed immediately by Friday’s high, 4.8125, and then the double-high charted on October 26th and 30th, 4.8425.  January soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.5775, followed by 13.50, and then the psychological 13.00 mark.  Initial resistance is at the new 1 ½ month high charted yesterday, 13.6975, followed by 13.80-13.90, and then the psychological 14.00 level.  Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Tuesday.

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