MarketEdge AM Comments

Nov 06, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn futures were mixed and soybean futures were higher overnight.  December corn finished the overnight session unchanged, settling at 4.7725.  January soybeans were up 13 ½ cents, settling at 13.6525.  In the outside markets, as of 7:45am:  The US Dollar Index is up 10 points, trading at 105.030.  December crude oil is up 81 cents, trading at $81.32 per barrel.  Precious metals are all lower.  Industrial metals are all higher.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 20 points, trading at 34,157.  Soybean futures were sharply higher overnight and garnered the lion’s share of trading volume.  South American weather concerns, strong technical performance on the charts, and money flow supported last night’s rally.  Brazil remains too dry in the central and western growing regions while the south is still too wet.  Planting pace in Southern Brazil is currently running well behind the average pace.  The rally in soybean futures has taken out some key technical resistance levels, inspiring money-flow chasing the market higher.  Traders are anticipating the release of the November WASDE Report on Thursday this week.  Average trade estimates do not call for major changes to production, usage, and carryout estimates, however, as with any government report, one cannot be too sure of oneself until the report is released.  On Friday, the funds bought 6000 contracts of corn, bought 8000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 2000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 146,140 contracts of corn, net long 38,120 contracts of soybeans, and net short 102,840 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, December corn faces initial resistance at 4.80, the double-high from overnight and Wednesday, followed immediately by 4.8125, Friday’s high, and then 4.8425, the double-high charted on October 26th and 30th.  Initial support lies at 4.75, followed by Friday’s low, 4.68, and then the multi-year contract low that held as key support on Friday, 4.6775.  January soybeans face initial resistance at the 1 ½ month high charted overnight, 13.6975, followed by the psychological 14.00 mark.  Initial support lies at 13.50, followed by Tuesday’s low, the psychological 13.00 level.  Opening calls are mixed. 
Have a great Monday.

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