MarketEdge AM Comments

Nov 17, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.  December corn finished the overnight session off 3 cents, settling at 4.7175.  January soybeans were off 7 ¾ cents, settling at 13.5250.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is off 270 points, trading at 104.080.  December crude oil is up $1.09, trading at $73.99 per barrel.  Precious metals are all higher.  Industrial metals are lower, except copper.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 141 points, trading at 35,160.  For all of the market volatility experienced this week, corn and soybean futures have moved very little from Friday’s closes.  For the week, December corn is up 7 ¾ cents and January soybeans are up 5 cents.  Improving South American weather forecasts and failure to push through key technical chart targets encouraged profit-taking in the second half of this week after highs were charted on Wednesday.  Profit-taking and long liquidation occurred in spite of some positive demand stories on Wednesday and Thursday.  On Wednesday, the October crush figure published by the National Oilseed Processors’ Association was a record high monthly crush figure.  On Thursday, the weekly soybean export sales figure was a record high weekly sales figure.  This positive news was shrugged off by the trade and chalked up to information that they were already expecting, muting market reaction.  Yesterday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, sold 8000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 4000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 172,065 contracts of corn, net long 73,775 contracts of soybeans, and net short 108,200 contracts of wheat.  This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday.  From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.7075, followed by 4.6525, yesterday’s low, and then the multi-year contract low charted on Monday, 4.61.  Initial resistance is at 4.75, the overnight high, followed by a cluster of resistance from 4.80 to 4.8125, which includes the highs from Wednesday, Tuesday, last Wednesday, last Monday, and Friday, November 3rd.  January soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.5050, followed immediately by Monday’s chart gap, 13.4975-13.5025, and then last week’s low charted on Thursday, 13.36.  Initial resistance is at 13.6150, the overnight high, followed by the 2 ½ month high charted on Wednesday, 13.9850, and then the psychological 14.00 mark.  Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.

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