MarketEdge AM Comments
Nov 03, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Soybean futures were higher overnight while corn futures struggled to find footing. December corn finished the overnight session up ¾ of a penny, settling at 4.7075. January soybeans were up 10 cents, settling at 13.3825. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 280 points, trading at 105.842. December crude oil is up 68 cents, trading at $83.14 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except silver. Industrial metals are lower, except tin. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 10 points, trading at 33,924. Soybean futures have found some life in the last few sessions and are now testing key chart resistance, closing above the 40-day moving average for the first time in a month and a half yesterday. Meanwhile, nearby corn futures are also testing an important chart level, however, it is to the opposite direction. December corn came precariously close to testing the multi-year contract low overnight. Below this level of support, further support is rather thin. So, it is really a tale of two charts this morning. There is a lack of fresh fundamental news guiding market direction. Corn and soybean futures have divorced themselves from each other and are moving towards opposite targets on the charts. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report is expected to show the 2023 harvest campaign close to complete. Next week, USDA will update supply and demand tables with the release of the November WASDE Report on Thursday. Traders are anxious to see what the government comes up with for adjustments to supply, usage, and carryout figures. Yesterday, the funds sold 3000 contracts of corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 1000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 109,522 contracts of corn, net long 10,820 contracts of soybeans, and net short 105,710 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the six-week low charted overnight, 4.68, followed immediately by the two-year-plus contract low charted on September 19th, 4.6775. Further support below 4.6775 is thin. Initial resistance is at 4.80, Wednesday’s high, followed by 4.8425, the double-high charted last Thursday and Monday. January soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.2625, followed by the psychological 13.00 mark, which was also Tuesday’s low. Initial resistance is at the double-high charted overnight and on September 21st, 13.3875, followed by the 13.60 area. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.
Good Morning. Soybean futures were higher overnight while corn futures struggled to find footing. December corn finished the overnight session up ¾ of a penny, settling at 4.7075. January soybeans were up 10 cents, settling at 13.3825. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 280 points, trading at 105.842. December crude oil is up 68 cents, trading at $83.14 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except silver. Industrial metals are lower, except tin. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 10 points, trading at 33,924. Soybean futures have found some life in the last few sessions and are now testing key chart resistance, closing above the 40-day moving average for the first time in a month and a half yesterday. Meanwhile, nearby corn futures are also testing an important chart level, however, it is to the opposite direction. December corn came precariously close to testing the multi-year contract low overnight. Below this level of support, further support is rather thin. So, it is really a tale of two charts this morning. There is a lack of fresh fundamental news guiding market direction. Corn and soybean futures have divorced themselves from each other and are moving towards opposite targets on the charts. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report is expected to show the 2023 harvest campaign close to complete. Next week, USDA will update supply and demand tables with the release of the November WASDE Report on Thursday. Traders are anxious to see what the government comes up with for adjustments to supply, usage, and carryout figures. Yesterday, the funds sold 3000 contracts of corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 1000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 109,522 contracts of corn, net long 10,820 contracts of soybeans, and net short 105,710 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the six-week low charted overnight, 4.68, followed immediately by the two-year-plus contract low charted on September 19th, 4.6775. Further support below 4.6775 is thin. Initial resistance is at 4.80, Wednesday’s high, followed by 4.8425, the double-high charted last Thursday and Monday. January soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.2625, followed by the psychological 13.00 mark, which was also Tuesday’s low. Initial resistance is at the double-high charted overnight and on September 21st, 13.3875, followed by the 13.60 area. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.