MarketEdge AM Comments
Jan 24, 2024
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. March corn finished the overnight session up 2 ¼ cents, settling at 4.4875. March soybeans were up 3 ½ cents, settling at 12.43. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 660 points, trading at 102.956. March crude oil is up 23 cents, trading at $74.60 per barrel. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are all higher. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 155 points, trading at 38,244. Corn and soybean futures continued to build on the momentum of the last couple of trading sessions overnight. Since Friday, nearby soybean futures have rallied 30 cents. Corn futures have timidly followed along. The overnight rally was supported by a sharply lower US Dollar Index, short-covering, soybean spread trading, and some South American weather concerns. The US Dollar was friendly to raw commodities, across the board, overnight. With the Dollar off over 600 points, virtually every raw commodity traded higher in the last twelve hours. After holding key lows charted late last week, grain and oilseed futures have finally encountered some bargain-buying and short-covering. This was to be expected, at some point, as futures were technically oversold. Finally, although traders are convinced that South America will grow a plentiful crop this year, the current weather forecast offers some pause for concern. Argentina’s forecast is dry for the foreseeable future with rising temperatures. This hot and dry weather could definitely impact crop production as Argentina’s soybean crop is currently in what would be in the “late July or early August” stage of maturity for us here in the Corn Belt. Meanwhile, Brazil is slated to receive widespread rainfall through the end of the week, but then will turn dry in the extended forecast. Yesterday, the funds bought 1000 contracts of corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 1000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 269,050 contracts of corn, net short 75,830 contracts of soybeans, and net short 69,860 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, March corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 4.4925, followed immediately by the one-week high charted yesterday, 4.5050, and then 4.60-4.6250, which includes the highs from everyday of the week of January 8th. Initial support lies at 4.43-4.4625, which includes the lows from overnight, yesterday, Monday, and Friday, followed by the new contract low charted on Thursday, 4.3675. March soybeans face initial resistance at the one-week high charted overnight, 12.4475, followed by the 12.50 area, and then 12.80. Initial support lies at 12.36, the overnight low, followed by 12.0950, the low for the week charted on Monday, and then the 7 ½ month low charted on Thursday, 12.01. Opening calls are higher.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. March corn finished the overnight session up 2 ¼ cents, settling at 4.4875. March soybeans were up 3 ½ cents, settling at 12.43. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 660 points, trading at 102.956. March crude oil is up 23 cents, trading at $74.60 per barrel. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are all higher. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 155 points, trading at 38,244. Corn and soybean futures continued to build on the momentum of the last couple of trading sessions overnight. Since Friday, nearby soybean futures have rallied 30 cents. Corn futures have timidly followed along. The overnight rally was supported by a sharply lower US Dollar Index, short-covering, soybean spread trading, and some South American weather concerns. The US Dollar was friendly to raw commodities, across the board, overnight. With the Dollar off over 600 points, virtually every raw commodity traded higher in the last twelve hours. After holding key lows charted late last week, grain and oilseed futures have finally encountered some bargain-buying and short-covering. This was to be expected, at some point, as futures were technically oversold. Finally, although traders are convinced that South America will grow a plentiful crop this year, the current weather forecast offers some pause for concern. Argentina’s forecast is dry for the foreseeable future with rising temperatures. This hot and dry weather could definitely impact crop production as Argentina’s soybean crop is currently in what would be in the “late July or early August” stage of maturity for us here in the Corn Belt. Meanwhile, Brazil is slated to receive widespread rainfall through the end of the week, but then will turn dry in the extended forecast. Yesterday, the funds bought 1000 contracts of corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 1000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 269,050 contracts of corn, net short 75,830 contracts of soybeans, and net short 69,860 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, March corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 4.4925, followed immediately by the one-week high charted yesterday, 4.5050, and then 4.60-4.6250, which includes the highs from everyday of the week of January 8th. Initial support lies at 4.43-4.4625, which includes the lows from overnight, yesterday, Monday, and Friday, followed by the new contract low charted on Thursday, 4.3675. March soybeans face initial resistance at the one-week high charted overnight, 12.4475, followed by the 12.50 area, and then 12.80. Initial support lies at 12.36, the overnight low, followed by 12.0950, the low for the week charted on Monday, and then the 7 ½ month low charted on Thursday, 12.01. Opening calls are higher.