MarketEdge AM Comments

Jan 17, 2024

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.  March corn finished the overnight session off 2 ½ cents, settling at 4.41.  March soybeans were off 12 ¼ cents, settling at 12.15.  In the outside markets, as of 7:45am:  The US Dollar Index is up 190 points, trading at 103.544.  February crude oil is off $1.58, trading at $70.82 per barrel.  Precious metals are all lower.  Industrial metals are mixed.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 151 points, trading at 37,402.  Corn and soybean futures just can’t seem to catch a break following Friday’s report.  Soybean futures attempted a recovery rally yesterday, but managed to close only slightly higher for the day.  Fresh news regarding grains and oilseeds is limited this morning.  Futures are still struggling with the incredibly bearish figures released by USDA on Friday.  There is some positive news of note this morning amidst all of the bearish sentiment.  Yesterday, the National Oilseed Processors’ Association released December crush data.  December 2023 crush was reported at 195.3 million bushels.  This is a single-month record crush figure.  Not only that, but it beat out the former single-month record (October 2023) by over 5 million bushels!  This brings September through December cumulative crush to 740 million bushels, 5.8% ahead of last year’s September-December crush.  USDA is currently estimating a 4% increase in crush year-over-year.  Yesterday, the funds sold 5000 contracts of corn, bought 3000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 251,210 contracts of corn, net short 38,280 contracts of soybeans, and net short 71,750 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at the double-low from overnight and Friday that is also the contract low, 4.41.  Support below this contract low is incredibly thin.  Initial resistance is at 4.50, followed by the 4.60 to 4.6250 range, which includes every single high charted last week.  March soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 12.1375, followed by the seven-month low charted on Friday, 12.03.  Initial resistance is at 12.31, the overnight high, followed by 12.50.  Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Wednesday.

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