MarketEdge AM Comments

Mar 05, 2024

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.  May corn finished the overnight session off 2 ½ cents, settling at 4.2750.  May soybeans were off 4 ½ cents, settling at 11.5050.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is up 80 points, trading at 103.911.  April crude oil is off $1.13, trading at $77.61 per barrel.  Precious metals are mixed.  Industrial metals are also mixed.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 110 points, trading at 38,912.  After a positive trading session yesterday, corn and soybean futures failed to follow through, once again, overnight.  Corn futures ran into short-term resistance that limited upside potential overnight and soybean futures just plain ran out of momentum.  Heavy Brazilian farmer selling during yesterday’s rally weighed on soybean futures overnight as did reports of more Chinese buying of Brazilian origin soybeans.  Meanwhile, weekly export inspections reported yesterday were friendly for both corn and soybeans.  Weekly inspections for both commodities ended up on the upper ends of the ranges of trade estimates.  Aside from the aforementioned, fresh fundamental news pertaining to grains and oilseeds is limited this morning.  Throughout the rest of the week, traders will likely be positioning themselves ahead of the release of the March WASDE Report on Friday.  Changes on this month’s report from last month are expected to be minimal, however, as with any government report, trade expectations don’t always fall in line with what USDA ends up publishing.  We will all find out together at 11am on Friday.  Yesterday, the funds bought 3000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 3000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 282,795 contracts of corn, net short 145,030 contracts of soybeans, and net short 65,970 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, May corn faces initial resistance at the two-week high charted yesterday, 4.3350, followed immediately by the February 20th high, 4.34, and then 4.50.  Initial support lies at the overnight low, 4.27, followed by the 4.20 to 4.24 area, which includes the lows from yesterday, Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, and Tuesday, and then the contract low charted last Monday, 4.0875.  May soybeans face initial resistance at the overnight high, 11.5650, followed by 11.6575, the one-plus week high charted yesterday, and then 11.92, the 2 ½ week high charted on February 20th.  Initial support lies at 11.4775, the overnight low, followed by 11.2850, the contract low charted on Thursday.  Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Tuesday.

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