MarketEdge AM Comments
Feb 29, 2024
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. May corn finished the overnight session off 3 cents, settling at 4.2550. May soybeans were off 13 cents, settling at 11.3225. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 10 points, trading at 103.982. April crude oil is up 8 cents, trading at $78.62 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are also mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 135 points, trading at 38,858. Corn futures attempted to keep up the momentum overnight but were dragged down by sharply lower soybean futures. Nearby soybean futures took out the previous contract low charted on Monday overnight, continuing to make their way toward the psychological 11.00 mark. Although South American soybean production estimates continue to drop, the trade appears to be content that supplies will be ample to satisfy global demand and extremely discounted Brazilian offers are keeping a firm lid on the upside potential of soybean futures. The weekly Export Sales Report released at 7:30am this morning failed to breathe any life into soybean futures. Weekly soybean sales bookings were disappointing. Weekly corn sales bookings weren’t bad at all, but also weren’t good enough to keep corn futures from succumbing to the gravitational pull of the soybean complex. Last week, 1,082,300MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade expectations, is 32% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 5% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,216,200MT. This figure is 19% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 34% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Colombia, South Korea, and Canada. Last week, 159,700MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the very bottom end of the range of trade estimates, is up noticeably from the previous week’s sales, and is 30% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,101,700MT. This figure is 8% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 16% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, the Netherlands, Mexico, South Korea, and Japan. Yesterday, the funds bought 4000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 332,585 contracts of corn, net short 143,675 contracts of soybeans, and net short 75,320 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, May corn finds initial support in the 4.20-4.25 range, which includes the lows from overnight, Wednesday, and Tuesday, followed by the contract low charted on Monday, 4.0875, and then the psychological 4.00 level. Initial resistance is at 4.3175, the one-week high charted overnight, followed by 4.34, last week’s high charted on Tuesday. May soybeans find initial support at the new contract low charted overnight, 11.3025, followed by the psychological 11.00 mark. Initial resistance is at the overnight high, 11.4625, followed by 11.50, and then the high for the week charted on Tuesday, 11.6150. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. May corn finished the overnight session off 3 cents, settling at 4.2550. May soybeans were off 13 cents, settling at 11.3225. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 10 points, trading at 103.982. April crude oil is up 8 cents, trading at $78.62 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are also mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 135 points, trading at 38,858. Corn futures attempted to keep up the momentum overnight but were dragged down by sharply lower soybean futures. Nearby soybean futures took out the previous contract low charted on Monday overnight, continuing to make their way toward the psychological 11.00 mark. Although South American soybean production estimates continue to drop, the trade appears to be content that supplies will be ample to satisfy global demand and extremely discounted Brazilian offers are keeping a firm lid on the upside potential of soybean futures. The weekly Export Sales Report released at 7:30am this morning failed to breathe any life into soybean futures. Weekly soybean sales bookings were disappointing. Weekly corn sales bookings weren’t bad at all, but also weren’t good enough to keep corn futures from succumbing to the gravitational pull of the soybean complex. Last week, 1,082,300MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade expectations, is 32% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 5% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,216,200MT. This figure is 19% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 34% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Colombia, South Korea, and Canada. Last week, 159,700MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the very bottom end of the range of trade estimates, is up noticeably from the previous week’s sales, and is 30% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,101,700MT. This figure is 8% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 16% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, the Netherlands, Mexico, South Korea, and Japan. Yesterday, the funds bought 4000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 332,585 contracts of corn, net short 143,675 contracts of soybeans, and net short 75,320 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, May corn finds initial support in the 4.20-4.25 range, which includes the lows from overnight, Wednesday, and Tuesday, followed by the contract low charted on Monday, 4.0875, and then the psychological 4.00 level. Initial resistance is at 4.3175, the one-week high charted overnight, followed by 4.34, last week’s high charted on Tuesday. May soybeans find initial support at the new contract low charted overnight, 11.3025, followed by the psychological 11.00 mark. Initial resistance is at the overnight high, 11.4625, followed by 11.50, and then the high for the week charted on Tuesday, 11.6150. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday.