MarketEdge AM Comments

Feb 26, 2024

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures finished the overnight session mixed.  March corn was off 3 ¼ cents, settling at 3.9650.  March soybeans were up 2 ¼ cents, settling at 11.3525.  In the outside markets, as of 7:35am:  The US Dollar Index is off 160 points, trading at 103.780.  April crude oil is off 16 cents, trading at $76.33 per barrel.  Precious metals are all lower.  Industrial metals are mixed.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 14 points, trading at 39,175.  Both corn and soybean futures charted new contract lows, once again, overnight.  The “bottom” still has yet to be established.  Corn and soybean futures started out the overnight session with a firmer tone and, as has been the case of late, were met with formidable selling pressure.  Essentially, any attempted rally or bounce has suffered the same fate in the last week-plus.  How low can it go?  That is a very interesting question that, unfortunately, has no answer as of this morning.  The funds have amassed a record net short corn position and are approaching a record net short soybean position and they show no sign of slowing down.  Managed money appears content to continue to pile onto already ridiculously short positions.  Fresh, friendly, fundamental news that could change the course of these markets is non-existent this morning.  Also, Brazilian soybean harvest and Safrinha corn planting are both moving along nicely, lending additional pressure to futures.  On Friday, the funds sold 5000 contracts of corn, sold 6000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 5000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 344,585 contracts of corn, net short 146,675 contracts of soybeans, and net short 75,320 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at the new contract low charted overnight, 3.9525.  Support below this level is incredibly thin.  Initial resistance is at the psychological 4.00 mark, followed by 4.0250, the overnight high, and then 4.2150, the double-high charted on Tuesday and on Friday, February 16th.  March soybeans find initial support at the new contract low overnight, 11.2675, followed by the psychological 11.00 level.  Initial resistance is at 11.4225, the overnight high, followed by 11.50, and then last week’s low charted on Tuesday, 11.8850.  Opening calls are mixed/lower.
Have a great Monday.

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