MarketEdge AM Comments

Feb 22, 2024

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn futures finished the overnight session slightly higher while soybean futures were slightly lower.  March corn was up ¾ of a penny, settling at 4.1175.  March soybeans were off 2 ½ cents, settling at 11.5825.  In the outside markets, as of 7:45am:  The US Dollar Index is off 70 points, trading at 103.932.  April crude oil is off 25 cents, trading at $77.66 per barrel.  Precious metals are higher, except gold.  Industrial metals are higher, except tin.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 180 points, trading at 38,857.  The overnight session was rather interesting.  Corn futures started by charting new lows before rebounding higher.  As of 6:30am, both corn and soybean futures were in the green, but things fell apart soon after.  Every single rally that has presented itself of late has done the exact same thing.  They start out promising and then fizzle out before they can really accomplish anything.  Bearish sentiment hanging in the air like a thick cloud continues to squash even the hint of positivity regarding grain and oilseed futures.  In Brazil, soybean harvest and Safrinha corn planting continue to progress at nice paces.  Safrinha corn planting is currently ahead of the average pace and the Brazilian soybean harvest is creeping up on the halfway mark.  Meanwhile, production estimates for South American soybean and corn production continue to be lowered, however, even with the lowered production estimates, current projections are still on target for a record South American soybean crop and a near-record South American corn crop.  The release of the weekly Export Sales Report will be delayed until tomorrow as a result of the government holiday on Monday.  Yesterday, the funds sold 6000 contracts of corn, sold 8000 contracts of soybeans, and were net even on wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 316,000 contracts of corn, net short 136,370 contracts of soybeans, and net short 67,880 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at the new contract low charted overnight, 4.0750, followed by the psychological 4.00 mark.  Initial resistance is at 4.13, the overnight high, followed by the 4.20 area, and then 4.3475, last week’s high charted on Tuesday.  March soybeans find initial support at the fresh eight-plus month low charted yesterday, 11.5750, followed by the contract low charted on May 31st, 11.4525.  Initial resistance is at 11.6725, the overnight high, followed by 11.8850, the high for the week charted on Tuesday, and then the psychological 12.00 level.  Opening calls are steady/mixed.
Have a great Thursday.

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