MarketEdge AM Comments

Feb 13, 2024

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were steady/mixed overnight.  March corn finished the overnight session up a penny and a half, settling at 4.32.  March soybeans were up a quarter of a penny, settling at 11.9325.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is off 180 points, trading at 103.989.  March crude oil is up 74 cents, trading at $77.66 per barrel.  Precious metals are mixed.  Industrial metals are all higher.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 51 points, trading at 38,833.  Trading volume increased slightly overnight, but futures really didn’t change that much.  At least corn and soybean futures appear to have consolidated above recent lows, however, there is a general lack of fresh fundamental news that would encourage futures to break out of the recent trading ranges to the upside.  Recent rainfall in Argentina and decent weather in Brazil that is allowing for swift soybean harvest and Safrinha corn planting and export/demand issues continue to keep tight lid on corn and soybean futures.  On yesterday afternoon’s Export Inspections Report, weekly inspections for both corn and soybeans were above the highest trade estimates.  Before we get too excited about that, though, it is important to acknowledge that the pace of soybean export inspections is still running well behind last year and the weekly inspections figure reported yesterday was well below the comparable week last year.  To add insult to injury, current Brazilian soybean offers are running $1.60 per bushel below US values.  As South American harvest progresses, it is likely the US soybean export program only gets worse from here, not better, especially considering the steep discount in South American values.  Yesterday, the funds bought 1000 contracts of corn, bought 3000 contracts of soybeans, and were net even on wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 298,680 contracts of corn, net short 127,160 contracts of soybeans, and net short 68,320 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, March corn faces initial resistance at yesterday’s high, 4.3275, followed by the double-high from Thursday and Friday, 4.37, and then last week’s high charted on Tuesday, 4.4550.  Initial support lies at 4.2775, the new contract low charted yesterday.  Support below this level is incredibly thin.  March soybeans face initial resistance from the overnight high, 11.9550, on up to the psychological 12.00 mark, followed by 12.0550, last week’s high charted on Tuesday.  Initial support lies at 11.87, the overnight low, followed by 11.7925, the eight-month low charted on Wednesday, and then 11.7525, the June 8th low.  Opening calls are steady/mixed.
Have a great Tuesday.

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