MarketEdge AM Comments
Jan 30, 2024
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn futures finished the overnight session slightly lower while soybean futures were higher. March corn was off a penny and a half, settling at 4.3875. March soybeans were up 2 ¾ cents, settling at 11.97. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 90 points, trading at 103.523. March crude oil is off 77 cents, trading at $76.01 per barrel. Precious metals are lower, except gold. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 90 points, trading at 38,398. Corn futures were the trading volume leader overnight, with speculative liquidation pushing futures to new contract lows. Soybean futures managed to rebound somewhat at the end of the overnight trading session, but not before charting new multi-month contract lows. Yesterday afternoon’s Export Inspections Report featured another miserable week of soybean export inspections. Last week, 32.7 million bushels of US soybeans were inspected for export. This figure is 10.8 million bushels lower than the previous week’s inspections and is a whopping 38.2 million bushels below the comparable week last year. Cumulative soybean export inspections for the marketing year are now running 314 million bushels behind last year’s pace. USDA currently only forecasts a 237 million bushel year-over-year decline in soybean exports. With the South American soybean crop becoming available to the global market at a steep discount to US supplies, it is appearing less and less likely that exports going forward will be able to close that gap. It is probable that this year’s soybean export figure on the balance sheet will get much smaller in the future rather than maintaining or increasing. Yesterday, the funds sold 4000 contracts of corn, sold 6000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 3000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 280,470 contracts of corn, net short 114,390 contracts of soybeans, and net short 72,345 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at the new contract low charted overnight, 4.3650. Support below this level is incredibly thin. Initial resistance is at 4.40, the overnight high, followed by 4.50, and then 4.5325, the two-week high charted on Thursday. March soybeans find initial support at the new 7 ½ month low charted overnight, 11.8775, followed by 11.7525, the June 8th low, and then 11.4525, the contract low charted on May 31st. Initial resistance is at 11.9825, the overnight high, followed immediately by the psychological 12.00 mark, and then 12.4750, the two-week high charted on Thursday. Opening calls are mixed/mostly lower.
Have a great Tuesday.
Good Morning. Corn futures finished the overnight session slightly lower while soybean futures were higher. March corn was off a penny and a half, settling at 4.3875. March soybeans were up 2 ¾ cents, settling at 11.97. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 90 points, trading at 103.523. March crude oil is off 77 cents, trading at $76.01 per barrel. Precious metals are lower, except gold. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 90 points, trading at 38,398. Corn futures were the trading volume leader overnight, with speculative liquidation pushing futures to new contract lows. Soybean futures managed to rebound somewhat at the end of the overnight trading session, but not before charting new multi-month contract lows. Yesterday afternoon’s Export Inspections Report featured another miserable week of soybean export inspections. Last week, 32.7 million bushels of US soybeans were inspected for export. This figure is 10.8 million bushels lower than the previous week’s inspections and is a whopping 38.2 million bushels below the comparable week last year. Cumulative soybean export inspections for the marketing year are now running 314 million bushels behind last year’s pace. USDA currently only forecasts a 237 million bushel year-over-year decline in soybean exports. With the South American soybean crop becoming available to the global market at a steep discount to US supplies, it is appearing less and less likely that exports going forward will be able to close that gap. It is probable that this year’s soybean export figure on the balance sheet will get much smaller in the future rather than maintaining or increasing. Yesterday, the funds sold 4000 contracts of corn, sold 6000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 3000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 280,470 contracts of corn, net short 114,390 contracts of soybeans, and net short 72,345 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at the new contract low charted overnight, 4.3650. Support below this level is incredibly thin. Initial resistance is at 4.40, the overnight high, followed by 4.50, and then 4.5325, the two-week high charted on Thursday. March soybeans find initial support at the new 7 ½ month low charted overnight, 11.8775, followed by 11.7525, the June 8th low, and then 11.4525, the contract low charted on May 31st. Initial resistance is at 11.9825, the overnight high, followed immediately by the psychological 12.00 mark, and then 12.4750, the two-week high charted on Thursday. Opening calls are mixed/mostly lower.
Have a great Tuesday.