MarketEdge AM Comments

Jan 09, 2024

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn futures were slightly lower and soybean futures were slightly higher overnight.  March corn finished the overnight session off a penny, settling at 4.54.  March soybeans were up a penny and a quarter, settling at 12.4675.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is up 220 points, trading at 102.430.  February crude oil is up $1.92, trading at $72.69 per barrel.  Precious metals are mixed.  Industrial metals are all lower.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 170 points, trading at 37,763.  For most of the overnight session, both corn and soybean futures were in the green, attempting to rebound off of recent lows.  Both commodities are technically “oversold” and due for a bit of a recovery.  Soybean futures have suffered the most since the beginning of the year, with the nearby contract currently trading over 50 cents below the December 29th close.  Soybeans have struggled of late in response to a much-improved South American weather forecast, rumored Chinese export sales cancellations, and dismal export sales and inspections.  Yesterday afternoon’s Export Inspections Report showed weekly soybean export inspections at 24.8 million bushels.  This figure is 23.4 million bushels below the five-year average and is 28.9 million bushels below the comparable week one year ago.  At this same point in the marketing year last year, 756.8 million bushels of soybeans had been inspected for China.  This year’s total so far is 533.3 million bushels.  To add insult to injury, we are on the cusp of the South American crop becoming available for export and, despite some growing season weather hiccups in the Southern Hemisphere, this year’s South American soybean crop is still expected to be a record.  Yesterday, the funds were net even on corn, sold 3000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 202,950 contracts of corn, net short 21,870 contracts of soybeans, and net short 62,080 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.54, followed immediately by the new contract low charted yesterday, 4.52.  Initial resistance is at 4.5675, the overnight high, followed by 4.7075, the high for the calendar year charted one week ago.  March soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 12.45, followed by 12.36, the nearly seven-month low charted yesterday.  Initial resistance is at 12.51, the overnight high, followed by the 12.80 area, and then the chart gap from one week ago, 12.9075-12.9675.  Opening calls are mixed/higher.
Have a great Tuesday. 


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