MarketEdge AM Comments
Oct 16, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures did not deviate much from Friday’s closes overnight. December corn was off a penny and a quarter, settling at 4.92. November soybeans were up a half of a penny, settling at 12.8075. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 200 points, trading at 106.447. November crude oil is up 42 cents, trading at $88.11 per barrel. Precious metals are lower, except platinum. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 157 points, trading at 33,984. The conflict in the Gaza Stip continues to dominate the headlines, however, corn and soybean futures have interestingly largely ignored the issues in the Middle East. Last week, futures attempted to rally following a friendly monthly WASDE Report but failed to push through key resistance levels. This technical chart failure is keeping a lid on near-term upside potential. Rainfall across the Corn Belt at the end of last week also did not excite traders much at all. Although the rain event threw a wrench in harvest progress, traders are unconcerned as the weather forecast for the rest of the month should allow for plenty of harvest activity. This afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report is expected to show national corn and soybean harvest progress at around 50% complete. Traders continue to closely monitor South American planting progress. So far, there have been some hiccups to planting activity due to too dry of conditions in some areas and too wet of conditions in others, however, it is early on in the planting campaign and a little premature to ring the alarm bells just yet. On Friday, the funds sold 2000 contracts of corn, sold 4000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 3000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 106,450 contracts of corn, net long 2815 contracts of soybeans, and net short 103,250 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn faces tough resistance surrounding the psychological 5.00 mark, including the double-high from Friday and Thursday, 4.9875, the October 6th high, 4.99, and 4.9950, the eight-week high charted on August 29th. Initial support lies at 4.90, followed by Thursday’s low, 4.8225, and then the 4.75 area. November soybeans face initial resistance at 12.89, the overnight high, followed by Thursday’s high, 12.9975, and the psychological 13.00 level. Initial support lies at Friday’s low, 12.7350, followed by the four-month low charted on Thursday, 12.5050. Opening calls are steady/mixed.
Have a great Monday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures did not deviate much from Friday’s closes overnight. December corn was off a penny and a quarter, settling at 4.92. November soybeans were up a half of a penny, settling at 12.8075. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 200 points, trading at 106.447. November crude oil is up 42 cents, trading at $88.11 per barrel. Precious metals are lower, except platinum. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 157 points, trading at 33,984. The conflict in the Gaza Stip continues to dominate the headlines, however, corn and soybean futures have interestingly largely ignored the issues in the Middle East. Last week, futures attempted to rally following a friendly monthly WASDE Report but failed to push through key resistance levels. This technical chart failure is keeping a lid on near-term upside potential. Rainfall across the Corn Belt at the end of last week also did not excite traders much at all. Although the rain event threw a wrench in harvest progress, traders are unconcerned as the weather forecast for the rest of the month should allow for plenty of harvest activity. This afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report is expected to show national corn and soybean harvest progress at around 50% complete. Traders continue to closely monitor South American planting progress. So far, there have been some hiccups to planting activity due to too dry of conditions in some areas and too wet of conditions in others, however, it is early on in the planting campaign and a little premature to ring the alarm bells just yet. On Friday, the funds sold 2000 contracts of corn, sold 4000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 3000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 106,450 contracts of corn, net long 2815 contracts of soybeans, and net short 103,250 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn faces tough resistance surrounding the psychological 5.00 mark, including the double-high from Friday and Thursday, 4.9875, the October 6th high, 4.99, and 4.9950, the eight-week high charted on August 29th. Initial support lies at 4.90, followed by Thursday’s low, 4.8225, and then the 4.75 area. November soybeans face initial resistance at 12.89, the overnight high, followed by Thursday’s high, 12.9975, and the psychological 13.00 level. Initial support lies at Friday’s low, 12.7350, followed by the four-month low charted on Thursday, 12.5050. Opening calls are steady/mixed.
Have a great Monday.