MarketEdge AM Comments
Oct 13, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. December corn finished the overnight session up 2 ¼ cents, settling at 4.9825. November soybeans were up 6 ½ cents, settling at 12.9650. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 130 points, trading at 106.470. November crude oil is up $3.64, trading at $86.55 per barrel. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 51 points, trading at 33,847. Corn and soybean futures followed through with yesterday’s post-report rally overnight. Both December corn and November soybean charts featured bullish key reversals in yesterday’s session. A bullish key reversal occurs when the high and low of the day exceed those of the previous two trading days and the close is above the closing price of the previous two days. Key reversals have a 70-80% probability of predicting short-term price trends according to Iowa State University research. So, it is likely that recent lows should hold for now and futures should move in an upward direction at least for the time being. On the October WASDE Report released yesterday, corn and soybean yield estimates were lowered, as expected, however, the soybean yield estimate came out at the very bottom end of the range of trade expectations. This is what inspired yesterday’s rally. Corn and soybean futures were also supported this morning by a somewhat friendly weekly Export Sales Report. Weekly corn and soybean sales bookings were both reported slightly above the highest trade expectations. Last week, 910,400MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is slightly above the highest trade estimate, is 50% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 9% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 812,900MT. This figure is 33% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 22% below the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, China, Colombia, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. Last week, 1,056,800MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is slightly above the highest trade estimate, is 31% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 68% higher than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,435,900MT. This figure is noticeably higher than both the previous week’s shipments and the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Germany, Mexico, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Yesterday, the funds bought 5000 contracts of corn, bought 15,000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 5000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 155,630 contracts of corn, net long 11,390 contracts of soybeans, and net short 105,625 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, December corn faces tough resistance surrounding the psychological 5.00 mark, including the highs from overnight, yesterday, last Thursday and Friday, and the eight-week high charted on August 29th, 4.9950. Additional resistance is found at 5.0750, the ten-week high charted on August 11th, and then the July 31st chart gap, 5.2450-5.2550. Initial support lies at 4.9250, the overnight low, followed by 4.8225, yesterday’s low, and then the 4.75 area. November soybeans face initial resistance at the psychological 13.00 level and came within a quarter of a penny of testing it yesterday. Further resistance is at 13.17, the three-week high charted on September 27th, and then 13.22 and 13.2275, the highs from September 21st and 20th, respectively. Initial support lies at 12.8425, the overnight low, followed by the new four-month contract low charted yesterday, 12.5050. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. December corn finished the overnight session up 2 ¼ cents, settling at 4.9825. November soybeans were up 6 ½ cents, settling at 12.9650. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 130 points, trading at 106.470. November crude oil is up $3.64, trading at $86.55 per barrel. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 51 points, trading at 33,847. Corn and soybean futures followed through with yesterday’s post-report rally overnight. Both December corn and November soybean charts featured bullish key reversals in yesterday’s session. A bullish key reversal occurs when the high and low of the day exceed those of the previous two trading days and the close is above the closing price of the previous two days. Key reversals have a 70-80% probability of predicting short-term price trends according to Iowa State University research. So, it is likely that recent lows should hold for now and futures should move in an upward direction at least for the time being. On the October WASDE Report released yesterday, corn and soybean yield estimates were lowered, as expected, however, the soybean yield estimate came out at the very bottom end of the range of trade expectations. This is what inspired yesterday’s rally. Corn and soybean futures were also supported this morning by a somewhat friendly weekly Export Sales Report. Weekly corn and soybean sales bookings were both reported slightly above the highest trade expectations. Last week, 910,400MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is slightly above the highest trade estimate, is 50% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 9% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 812,900MT. This figure is 33% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 22% below the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, China, Colombia, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. Last week, 1,056,800MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is slightly above the highest trade estimate, is 31% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 68% higher than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,435,900MT. This figure is noticeably higher than both the previous week’s shipments and the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Germany, Mexico, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Yesterday, the funds bought 5000 contracts of corn, bought 15,000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 5000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 155,630 contracts of corn, net long 11,390 contracts of soybeans, and net short 105,625 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, December corn faces tough resistance surrounding the psychological 5.00 mark, including the highs from overnight, yesterday, last Thursday and Friday, and the eight-week high charted on August 29th, 4.9950. Additional resistance is found at 5.0750, the ten-week high charted on August 11th, and then the July 31st chart gap, 5.2450-5.2550. Initial support lies at 4.9250, the overnight low, followed by 4.8225, yesterday’s low, and then the 4.75 area. November soybeans face initial resistance at the psychological 13.00 level and came within a quarter of a penny of testing it yesterday. Further resistance is at 13.17, the three-week high charted on September 27th, and then 13.22 and 13.2275, the highs from September 21st and 20th, respectively. Initial support lies at 12.8425, the overnight low, followed by the new four-month contract low charted yesterday, 12.5050. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.