MarketEdge AM Comments
Oct 11, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. December corn finished the overnight session off a penny and a quarter, settling at 4.8425. November soybeans were off 5 ¾ cents, settling at 12.6575. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is up 70 points, trading at 105.892. November crude oil is off 78 cents, trading at $85.19 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 75 points, trading at 34,011. Harvest progress continues to weigh on corn and soybean futures. Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report projected that the national corn crop was 34% harvested as of Sunday night. This figure is an 11 point advancement from last week and is three points ahead of the five-year average. The national soybean crop was reported to be 43% harvested as of Sunday night. This figure is a 20 point advancement from last week and is six points ahead of the five-year average. Widespread rainfall will likely throw a wrench in harvesting activity across the Corn Belt starting today and heading into the weekend, however, traders appear to be unconcerned given the amount of harvest activity already accomplished. After this rain event, weather is expected to, once again, facilitate rapid harvest progress. Fresh news regarding grains and oilseeds is limited this morning. That will all change tomorrow morning, when USDA releases the October WASDE Report. A slight reduction to the corn carryout projection and a slight increase to the soybean carryout projection are expected, however, changes to the balance sheets from the September report should be minimal. Of course, as with any government report, it is really futile to try to guess what they have up their sleeves ahead of time as it is common for USDA to pull some weird stuff out of left field that nobody was expecting. So, we will all find out together what Uncle Sam has to say at 11am tomorrow morning and go from there. Yesterday, the funds sold 3000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 4000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 161,630 contracts of corn, net long 1390 contracts of soybeans, and net short 109,625 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.8375, followed closely by the double-low from last Wednesday and Thursday, 4.8250, and then the 4.75 area. Initial resistance is at 4.8825, yesterday’s high, followed by a cluster of resistance surrounding the key 5.00 level, including the seven-week high charted on August 29th, 4.9950. November soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 12.6475, followed by the new nearly four-month low charted yesterday, 12.5425, and then 12.50. Initial resistance is at 12.7425, the overnight high, followed by 12.8725, last week’s high charted on Friday, and then the psychological 13.00 mark. Opening calls are steady/lower.
Have a great Wednesday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. December corn finished the overnight session off a penny and a quarter, settling at 4.8425. November soybeans were off 5 ¾ cents, settling at 12.6575. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is up 70 points, trading at 105.892. November crude oil is off 78 cents, trading at $85.19 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 75 points, trading at 34,011. Harvest progress continues to weigh on corn and soybean futures. Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report projected that the national corn crop was 34% harvested as of Sunday night. This figure is an 11 point advancement from last week and is three points ahead of the five-year average. The national soybean crop was reported to be 43% harvested as of Sunday night. This figure is a 20 point advancement from last week and is six points ahead of the five-year average. Widespread rainfall will likely throw a wrench in harvesting activity across the Corn Belt starting today and heading into the weekend, however, traders appear to be unconcerned given the amount of harvest activity already accomplished. After this rain event, weather is expected to, once again, facilitate rapid harvest progress. Fresh news regarding grains and oilseeds is limited this morning. That will all change tomorrow morning, when USDA releases the October WASDE Report. A slight reduction to the corn carryout projection and a slight increase to the soybean carryout projection are expected, however, changes to the balance sheets from the September report should be minimal. Of course, as with any government report, it is really futile to try to guess what they have up their sleeves ahead of time as it is common for USDA to pull some weird stuff out of left field that nobody was expecting. So, we will all find out together what Uncle Sam has to say at 11am tomorrow morning and go from there. Yesterday, the funds sold 3000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 4000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 161,630 contracts of corn, net long 1390 contracts of soybeans, and net short 109,625 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.8375, followed closely by the double-low from last Wednesday and Thursday, 4.8250, and then the 4.75 area. Initial resistance is at 4.8825, yesterday’s high, followed by a cluster of resistance surrounding the key 5.00 level, including the seven-week high charted on August 29th, 4.9950. November soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 12.6475, followed by the new nearly four-month low charted yesterday, 12.5425, and then 12.50. Initial resistance is at 12.7425, the overnight high, followed by 12.8725, last week’s high charted on Friday, and then the psychological 13.00 mark. Opening calls are steady/lower.
Have a great Wednesday.