MarketEdge AM Comments

Oct 10, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.  December corn finished the overnight session off 1 ¾ cents, settling at 4.8650.  November soybeans were off 2 ½ cents, settling at 12.6175.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is off 30 points, trading at 106.052.  November crude oil is off 10 cents, trading at $86.28 per barrel.  Precious metals are lower, except gold.  Industrial metals are higher, except copper.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 37 points, trading at 33,838.  Grain and oilseed market reaction to the conflict in the Middle East was short-lived yesterday.  Harvest pressure eclipsed geopolitical concerns yesterday.  While crude oil futures and most other commodities continued to be well supported by the situation in the Gaza Strip, corn and soybean futures ended up in the red yesterday and overnight.  There was no Crop Progress and Conditions Report yesterday since it was a government holiday.  That report will be released this afternoon instead.  Traders expect rapid harvest activity to be reported.  Although weather should interrupt harvest activity in the later part of this week, traders are not concerned given the breakneck pace of harvest so far and an extended forecast that should allow for the bulk of harvest to be complete by the end of October or early November.  Of course, everything isn’t perfect for everybody everywhere, however, yield reports from the field, in general, continue to be “as expected” or “better than expected.”  On Thursday, USDA will release the October WASDE Report.  Traders are anxious to see what adjustments the government chooses to make to the balance sheets on this report.  Yesterday, the funds sold 4000 contracts of corn, sold 1000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 1000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 158,630 contracts of corn, net short 615 contracts of soybeans, and net short 105,625 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.8450, followed by the 4.75 area, and then 4.6775, the two-year contract low charted on September 19th.  Initial resistance is at 4.8825, the overnight high, followed by a cluster of resistance surrounding the psychological 5.00 mark, including 4.99, last week’s high charted on Friday, and 4.9950, the seven-week high charted on August 29th.  November soybeans took out key support and charted a new four-month low overnight, at 12.5425.  Additional support lies at 12.50, and then the psychological 12.00 level.  Initial resistance is at 12.8725, last week’s high charted on Friday, followed by the psychological 13.00 mark, and then 13.17, the 2 ½ week high charted on September 27th.  Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Tuesday.

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Corn and soybean futures stayed close to unchanged overnight.
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