MarketEdge AM Comments

Oct 09, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight.  December corn finished the overnight session up 2 cents, settling at 4.94.  November soybeans were up 4 ¾ cents, settling at 12.7075.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is up 450 points, trading at 106.490.  November crude oil is up $3.34, trading at $86.13 per barrel.  Precious metals are higher, except palladium.  Industrial metals are all higher.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 143 points, trading at 33,457.  Grains, oilseeds, crude oil, and most raw commodities were well supported overnight in response to the escalating conflict in the Gaza Strip.  This latest violent exchange between Palestinian militants and the Israeli military began early Saturday morning.  Hamas fired thousands of rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israel to begin the offensive, followed by a ground invasion of Southern Israel and the taking of many Israeli hostages.  By 10:30am, the Israeli government had declared war on Hamas and within 15 minutes, Israeli fighter jets began air strikes on targets within the Gaza Strip.  Early Sunday morning, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that all of the sites from which Hamas launched their rockets within the Gaza Strip had been destroyed and that Israel had moved into an “offensive formation” phase of the conflict.  So far, it is estimated that well over 1000 people have been killed in the fighting and hundreds more have been injured, both Israelis and Palestinians.  In a matter of two days, this latest armed conflict between Israel and Palestine has produced the most casualties on both sides seen in years.  Of course, this situation has commodity markets on edge and understandably so.  Other news that might impact grain and oilseed futures has taken a back seat for today.  Corn and soybean futures remain under plenty of harvest pressure, limiting upside potential, as harvest moves along uninterrupted by any weather issues across the Corn Belt with farmers reporting mostly “as expected” or “better than expected” yields.  The next key government report that traders are anticipating will be released on Thursday morning, the October WASDE Report.  On Friday, the funds sold 5000 contracts of corn, sold 4000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 3000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 154,630 contracts of corn, net long 390 contracts of soybeans, and net short 106,625 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, December corn faces initial resistance clustered around the psychological 5.00 mark, including Friday’s high, 4.99, and the 1 ½ month high charted on August 29th, 4.9950, followed by 5.0750, the two month high charted on August 11th, and then the July 31st chart gap, 5.2450-5.2550.  Initial support lies at 4.90, followed by 4.8250, the double-low from Wednesday and Thursday, and then 4.7550, last week’s low charted on Monday.  November soybeans face initial resistance at 12.7750, the overnight high, followed by 12.8725, Friday’s high, and then the psychological 13.00 level.  Initial support lies at 12.62, last week’s low charted on Thursday, followed by the double-low charted Tuesday and June 28th that is also a 3 ½ month contract low, 12.5675.  Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Monday.

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Nov 01, 2023
Grains were mixed, with corn down and beans up.
Nov 01, 2023
Corn and soybean futures stayed close to unchanged overnight.
Oct 31, 2023
Corn and soybeans both traded higher today.