MarketEdge AM Comments

Oct 06, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Nearby soybean futures were slightly higher while corn futures and deferred soybean futures were slightly lower overnight.  December corn finished the overnight session off 2 cents, settling at 4.9550.  November soybeans were up a penny and a half, settling at 12.8225.  In the outside markets, as of 7:45am:  The US Dollar Index is up 470 points, trading at 106.797.  November crude oil is off 22 cents, trading at $82.09 per barrel.  Precious metals are mixed.  Industrial metals are mixed.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 184 points, trading at 33,120.  Yesterday, a short-covering rally allowed corn futures to conquer a tough technical resistance level that had kept a lid on futures for the last month-plus.  At the end of the day, futures closed decisively above that key mark on the chart.  Although yesterday’s rally was mostly technical in nature, it is not entirely fair to assume that there weren’t some “real world” elements that played into the rally.  It was reported yesterday that a cargo ship hit a sea mine in the Black Sea en route to be loaded in Ukraine.  This is not the kind of news we need out of that region, especially when there were rumors in the air that Russia and Ukraine were in discussions to renew some sort of Black Sea export arrangement once again.  Corn and wheat futures benefitted from this news story yesterday.  Meanwhile, despite support from the uneasy situation in the Black Sea and technical chart influence, grains and oilseeds remain under quite a bit of pressure, limiting upside potential, as harvest chugs along across the Corn Belt unimpeded with generally favorable yield reports.  Yesterday, the funds bought 8000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 5000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 155,670 contracts of corn, net long 18,930 contracts of soybeans, and net short 106,420 contracts of wheat.  This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday.  From a chart perspective, December corn blasted through key resistance at the one-month high yesterday, 4.9025, closing 8 ¼ cents above this level.  Overnight, a new one-month high was charted, at 4.99.  This level, followed immediately by the August 29th high, 4.9950, and the psychological 5.00 mark stand as initial support, followed by 5.0750, the two-month high charted on August 11th, and then 5.2450-5.2550, the July 31st chart gap.  Initial support lies at 4.90, the former resistance level, followed by 4.8250, the double-low from Wednesday and yesterday, and then Friday’s low, 4.7550.  November soybeans face initial resistance at 12.8725, the overnight high, followed by the psychological 13.00 mark, and then 13.17, last week’s high charted on Wednesday.  Initial support lies at 12.7875, the overnight low, followed by 12.62, yesterday’s low, and then 12.5675, the double-low charted on Tuesday and June 28th which is also a 3 ½ month contract low.  Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend. 

Read More News

Nov 01, 2023
Grains were mixed, with corn down and beans up.
Nov 01, 2023
Corn and soybean futures stayed close to unchanged overnight.
Oct 31, 2023
Corn and soybeans both traded higher today.