MarketEdge AM Comments
Oct 05, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. December corn finished the overnight session off 1 ¾ cents, settling at 4.8425. November soybeans were off 7 ¼ cents, settling at 12.6575. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 50 points, trading at 106.753. November crude oil is off 40 cents, trading at $83.82 per barrel. Precious metals are lower, except silver. Industrial metals are lower, except tin. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 92 points, trading at 33,234. Uninterrupted harvest activity and mostly “as expected” or “better than expected” yield reports from the field continue to weigh on corn and soybean futures this morning. A struggling export program and technical chart resistance are also keeping a lid on upside potential. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Weekly corn and soybean sales bookings were much improved from the previous week! Last week, 1,816,000MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is nearly 1MMT higher than the previous week’s sales and is on the upper end of the range of trade expectations. For the 2024/25 marketing year, 611,400MT of corn was booked for sale to Mexico last week. This figure is within the range of trade estimates. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 612,400MT. Primary destinations were Mexico, China, Japan, Honduras, and Colombia. Last week, 808,500MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is over 130,000MT higher than the previous week’s sales and is on the upper end of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 671,500MT. Primary destinations were China, Mexico, Spain, Japan, and Colombia. Yesterday, the funds sold 2000 contracts of corn, were net even on soybeans, and sold 3000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 163,670 contracts of corn, net long 16,930 contracts of soybeans, and net short 111,420 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the double-low from yesterday and overnight, 4.8250, followed by Friday’s low, 4.7550, and then 4.7375, last week’s low charted on Monday. Initial resistance is at yesterday’s high, 4.8975, followed immediately by 4.9025, the one-month high charted on September 6th, and then the August 29th high, 4.9950, and the psychological 5.00 mark. November soybeans find initial support at 12.62, the overnight low, followed by the double-low charted on Tuesday and June 28th, 12.5675, which is also a 3 ½ month contract low. Initial resistance is at 12.85, yesterday’s high, followed by the psychological 13.00 level, and then 13.17, last week’s high charted on Wednesday. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. December corn finished the overnight session off 1 ¾ cents, settling at 4.8425. November soybeans were off 7 ¼ cents, settling at 12.6575. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 50 points, trading at 106.753. November crude oil is off 40 cents, trading at $83.82 per barrel. Precious metals are lower, except silver. Industrial metals are lower, except tin. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 92 points, trading at 33,234. Uninterrupted harvest activity and mostly “as expected” or “better than expected” yield reports from the field continue to weigh on corn and soybean futures this morning. A struggling export program and technical chart resistance are also keeping a lid on upside potential. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Weekly corn and soybean sales bookings were much improved from the previous week! Last week, 1,816,000MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is nearly 1MMT higher than the previous week’s sales and is on the upper end of the range of trade expectations. For the 2024/25 marketing year, 611,400MT of corn was booked for sale to Mexico last week. This figure is within the range of trade estimates. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 612,400MT. Primary destinations were Mexico, China, Japan, Honduras, and Colombia. Last week, 808,500MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is over 130,000MT higher than the previous week’s sales and is on the upper end of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 671,500MT. Primary destinations were China, Mexico, Spain, Japan, and Colombia. Yesterday, the funds sold 2000 contracts of corn, were net even on soybeans, and sold 3000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 163,670 contracts of corn, net long 16,930 contracts of soybeans, and net short 111,420 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the double-low from yesterday and overnight, 4.8250, followed by Friday’s low, 4.7550, and then 4.7375, last week’s low charted on Monday. Initial resistance is at yesterday’s high, 4.8975, followed immediately by 4.9025, the one-month high charted on September 6th, and then the August 29th high, 4.9950, and the psychological 5.00 mark. November soybeans find initial support at 12.62, the overnight low, followed by the double-low charted on Tuesday and June 28th, 12.5675, which is also a 3 ½ month contract low. Initial resistance is at 12.85, yesterday’s high, followed by the psychological 13.00 level, and then 13.17, last week’s high charted on Wednesday. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday.