MarketEdge AM Comments
Oct 30, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn futures were slightly lower and soybean futures were slightly higher overnight. December corn finished the overnight session off 1 ¾ cents, settling at 4.79. November soybeans were up ¾ of a penny, settling at 12.98. In the outside markets, as of 7:30am: The US Dollar Index is off 160 points, trading at 106.397. December crude oil is off $1.18, trading at $84.36 per barrel. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are all higher. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 189 points, trading at 32,693. Fresh fundamental news regarding grains and oilseeds is scant this morning. Corn trading volume was light overnight. After failing to hold the psychological 5.00 level on December corn one week ago, traders seem uninterested in chasing the corn market higher. In fact, from a technical standpoint, it appears more likely that December corn is poised to test underlying support rather than go after recent highs. Soybean futures are in the opposite camp. November soybeans tested the psychological 13.00 mark both Friday and overnight. Should that important chart level be conquered, the November contract will likely rally to test the one-month high charted ten days ago. South American weather looks to be improving overall as of this morning. Central and Western Brazil are on track to receive welcome showers in the 6-10 day timeframe while Southern Brazil is expected to dry out after another wet stretch this week. While Brazilian soybean planting progress is running behind the five-year average, the current weather forecast should offer an opportunity for farmers to catch up. On Friday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, bought 10,000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 2000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 104,520 contracts of corn, net long 6820 contracts of soybeans, and net short 101,710 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn faces initial resistance at the double-high from overnight and Thursday, 4.8425, followed by the psychological 5.00 level, and then 5.0950, the two-month high charted on October 20th. Initial support lies within the range between 4.7675 and 4.7875, which includes the lows from overnight, Friday, Thursday, and Wednesday, followed by 4.6775, the two-year-plus contract low charted on September 19th. November soybeans face initial resistance at the key, psychological 13.00 mark, followed by the overnight high, 13.0875, and then 13.1850, the one-month high charted on October 20th. Initial support lies at 12.9525, the overnight low, followed by 12.7750-12.78, which contains the lows from Friday, Thursday, and Wednesday, and then 12.5050, the 4 ½ month low charted on October 12th. Opening calls are mixed.
Good Morning. Corn futures were slightly lower and soybean futures were slightly higher overnight. December corn finished the overnight session off 1 ¾ cents, settling at 4.79. November soybeans were up ¾ of a penny, settling at 12.98. In the outside markets, as of 7:30am: The US Dollar Index is off 160 points, trading at 106.397. December crude oil is off $1.18, trading at $84.36 per barrel. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are all higher. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 189 points, trading at 32,693. Fresh fundamental news regarding grains and oilseeds is scant this morning. Corn trading volume was light overnight. After failing to hold the psychological 5.00 level on December corn one week ago, traders seem uninterested in chasing the corn market higher. In fact, from a technical standpoint, it appears more likely that December corn is poised to test underlying support rather than go after recent highs. Soybean futures are in the opposite camp. November soybeans tested the psychological 13.00 mark both Friday and overnight. Should that important chart level be conquered, the November contract will likely rally to test the one-month high charted ten days ago. South American weather looks to be improving overall as of this morning. Central and Western Brazil are on track to receive welcome showers in the 6-10 day timeframe while Southern Brazil is expected to dry out after another wet stretch this week. While Brazilian soybean planting progress is running behind the five-year average, the current weather forecast should offer an opportunity for farmers to catch up. On Friday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, bought 10,000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 2000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 104,520 contracts of corn, net long 6820 contracts of soybeans, and net short 101,710 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn faces initial resistance at the double-high from overnight and Thursday, 4.8425, followed by the psychological 5.00 level, and then 5.0950, the two-month high charted on October 20th. Initial support lies within the range between 4.7675 and 4.7875, which includes the lows from overnight, Friday, Thursday, and Wednesday, followed by 4.6775, the two-year-plus contract low charted on September 19th. November soybeans face initial resistance at the key, psychological 13.00 mark, followed by the overnight high, 13.0875, and then 13.1850, the one-month high charted on October 20th. Initial support lies at 12.9525, the overnight low, followed by 12.7750-12.78, which contains the lows from Friday, Thursday, and Wednesday, and then 12.5050, the 4 ½ month low charted on October 12th. Opening calls are mixed.