MarketEdge AM Comments
Oct 20, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were mostly lower overnight. December corn finished the overnight session unchanged, settling at 5.05. November soybeans were off 3 ½ cents, settling at 13.12. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 100 points, trading at 106.350. November crude oil is up $1.09, trading at $90.46 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except palladium. Industrial metals are lower, except aluminum. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 136 points, trading at 33,411. Corn and soybean futures took a breather overnight following yesterday’s impressive session. Corn futures finally found some footing yesterday after being hopelessly range-bound for two months, pushing through the psychological 5.00 barrier that had kept a lid on December futures since August 21st. Before yesterday, soybean futures were clearly the upside leader this week and yesterday corn wanted in on the action and took the driver’s seat. Although there are fundamental factors that contributed to firmer futures this week, most notably soybean demand stories, the recent uptick in futures appears to be mostly technical in nature. Further upside potential still remains rather limited with plenty of technical resistance levels to contend with for both corn and soybeans on the horizon. Technicals aren’t the only obstacle in the way of a meaningful move higher for corn and soybean futures as harvest progress is also weighing heavily on futures. Nevertheless, solid closes above 5.00 December corn and 13.00 November beans this week open up new trading ranges of possibilities for both commodities and, for this, we should be excited, especially during the gutslot of harvest. Yesterday, the funds bought 9000 contracts of corn, bought 1000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 3000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 99,450 contracts of corn, net long 11,815 contracts of soybeans, and net short 101,250 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, December corn charted a new 2 ½ month high overnight, at 5.08. That level now stands as initial resistance, followed by key resistance at the July 31st chart gap, 5.2450-5.2550. Initial support lies at 5.03, the overnight low, followed by the former resistance level, at the psychological 5.00 mark, and then this week’s low charted on Tuesday, 4.8775. November soybeans face initial resistance at the one-month high charted overnight, 13.1850, followed closely by the 13.20 area, and then 13.50. Initial support lies at 13.0625, the overnight low, followed by the former resistance level, at the psychological 13.00 level, and then the 12.75 area. Opening calls are steady/mixed.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were mostly lower overnight. December corn finished the overnight session unchanged, settling at 5.05. November soybeans were off 3 ½ cents, settling at 13.12. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 100 points, trading at 106.350. November crude oil is up $1.09, trading at $90.46 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except palladium. Industrial metals are lower, except aluminum. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 136 points, trading at 33,411. Corn and soybean futures took a breather overnight following yesterday’s impressive session. Corn futures finally found some footing yesterday after being hopelessly range-bound for two months, pushing through the psychological 5.00 barrier that had kept a lid on December futures since August 21st. Before yesterday, soybean futures were clearly the upside leader this week and yesterday corn wanted in on the action and took the driver’s seat. Although there are fundamental factors that contributed to firmer futures this week, most notably soybean demand stories, the recent uptick in futures appears to be mostly technical in nature. Further upside potential still remains rather limited with plenty of technical resistance levels to contend with for both corn and soybeans on the horizon. Technicals aren’t the only obstacle in the way of a meaningful move higher for corn and soybean futures as harvest progress is also weighing heavily on futures. Nevertheless, solid closes above 5.00 December corn and 13.00 November beans this week open up new trading ranges of possibilities for both commodities and, for this, we should be excited, especially during the gutslot of harvest. Yesterday, the funds bought 9000 contracts of corn, bought 1000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 3000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 99,450 contracts of corn, net long 11,815 contracts of soybeans, and net short 101,250 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, December corn charted a new 2 ½ month high overnight, at 5.08. That level now stands as initial resistance, followed by key resistance at the July 31st chart gap, 5.2450-5.2550. Initial support lies at 5.03, the overnight low, followed by the former resistance level, at the psychological 5.00 mark, and then this week’s low charted on Tuesday, 4.8775. November soybeans face initial resistance at the one-month high charted overnight, 13.1850, followed closely by the 13.20 area, and then 13.50. Initial support lies at 13.0625, the overnight low, followed by the former resistance level, at the psychological 13.00 level, and then the 12.75 area. Opening calls are steady/mixed.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.