MarketEdge AM Comments
Oct 19, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Aside from nearby soybean futures, corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. December corn finished the overnight session off ¾ of a penny, settling at 4.9125. November soybeans were up a penny and a half, settling at 13.1250. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 210 points, trading at 106.358. November crude oil is off 61 cents, trading at $87.71 per barrel. Precious metals are lower, except platinum. Industrial metals are all higher. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 4 points, trading at 33,810. The November soybean contract finally conquered key resistance, at the 13.00 mark, yesterday. Soybean futures have enjoyed plenty of support this week from solid export inspections and crush data as well as concerns over delayed planting in South America. Meanwhile, corn futures remain hopelessly range-bound with a general lack of news to inspire a rally as harvest moves along and yields continue to be reported as “as expected” or “better than expected.” The weekly Export Sales Report released at 7:30am this morning reinforced the positive soybean narrative, reporting a solid week of soybean export sales and shipments. Last week, 881,300MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is in the middle of the range of trade expectations, is 3% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 15% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 516,300MT. This figure is a marketing-year low, is 37% lower than the previous week’s shipments, and is 25% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Colombia, Japan, El Salvador, and Taiwan. Last week, 1,371,900MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade expectations, is 30% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 92% higher than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,990,500MT. This figure is 39% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is up noticeably from the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Mexico, Spain, Japan, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, bought 4000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 2000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 108,450 contracts of corn, net long 10,815 contracts of soybeans, and net short 104,250 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn faces initial resistance at 4.94, yesterday’s high, followed by a cluster of tough resistance surrounding the psychological 5.00 mark, including the double-high from last Thursday and Friday, 4.9875, 4.99, the high for the month charted on the 6th, and 4.9950, the eight-week high charted on August 29th. Initial support lies at 4.8775, this week’s low charted on Tuesday, followed by 4.8225, last week’s low charted on Thursday, and then the 4.75 area. November soybeans charted a new four-week high overnight, at 13.1775. This level now stands as initial resistance, followed by the 13.20 area, and then 13.50. Initial support lies at the former key resistance level, 13.00, followed by the 12.75 area, and then the four-month low charted one week ago, 12.5050. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Aside from nearby soybean futures, corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. December corn finished the overnight session off ¾ of a penny, settling at 4.9125. November soybeans were up a penny and a half, settling at 13.1250. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 210 points, trading at 106.358. November crude oil is off 61 cents, trading at $87.71 per barrel. Precious metals are lower, except platinum. Industrial metals are all higher. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 4 points, trading at 33,810. The November soybean contract finally conquered key resistance, at the 13.00 mark, yesterday. Soybean futures have enjoyed plenty of support this week from solid export inspections and crush data as well as concerns over delayed planting in South America. Meanwhile, corn futures remain hopelessly range-bound with a general lack of news to inspire a rally as harvest moves along and yields continue to be reported as “as expected” or “better than expected.” The weekly Export Sales Report released at 7:30am this morning reinforced the positive soybean narrative, reporting a solid week of soybean export sales and shipments. Last week, 881,300MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is in the middle of the range of trade expectations, is 3% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 15% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 516,300MT. This figure is a marketing-year low, is 37% lower than the previous week’s shipments, and is 25% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Colombia, Japan, El Salvador, and Taiwan. Last week, 1,371,900MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade expectations, is 30% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 92% higher than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,990,500MT. This figure is 39% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is up noticeably from the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Mexico, Spain, Japan, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, bought 4000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 2000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 108,450 contracts of corn, net long 10,815 contracts of soybeans, and net short 104,250 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn faces initial resistance at 4.94, yesterday’s high, followed by a cluster of tough resistance surrounding the psychological 5.00 mark, including the double-high from last Thursday and Friday, 4.9875, 4.99, the high for the month charted on the 6th, and 4.9950, the eight-week high charted on August 29th. Initial support lies at 4.8775, this week’s low charted on Tuesday, followed by 4.8225, last week’s low charted on Thursday, and then the 4.75 area. November soybeans charted a new four-week high overnight, at 13.1775. This level now stands as initial resistance, followed by the 13.20 area, and then 13.50. Initial support lies at the former key resistance level, 13.00, followed by the 12.75 area, and then the four-month low charted one week ago, 12.5050. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Thursday.