MarketEdge AM Comments

Oct 17, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn futures were slightly lower and soybean futures were higher overnight.  December corn finished the overnight session off a penny, settling at 4.89.  November soybeans were up 6 ¼ cents, settling at 12.9250.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is off 40 points, trading at 106.203.  November crude oil is up 20 cents, trading at $86.86 per barrel.  Precious metals are higher, except palladium.  Industrial metals are mixed.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 67 points, trading at 34,067.  Soybean futures were the clear upside leader overnight, supported by friendly monthly crush data released by the National Oilseed Processors’ Association (NOPA) yesterday.  The September soybean crush figure reported by NOPA yesterday was a record for the month of September by four million bushels and also outpaced the average trade estimate and August crush by the same amount.  Although it is what is grabbing headlines this morning, this crush demand story is not the only demand story traders are paying attention to when it comes to soybeans.  So far this marketing year, soybean shipments have outpaced last year with China leading the pack of customers.  This is certainly good news for soybean demand but it is also important to note that sales are lagging.  Shipments are all fine and good but additional sales are needed to keep the ball rolling once current obligations are met.  This is why the weekly Export Sales Report draws such scrutiny from traders.  Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report estimated the national corn crop to be 45% harvested.  This figure is an 11-point advancement from last week and is three points ahead of the five-year average.  The national soybean crop was reported to be 62% harvested.  This figure is a 19-point advancement from last week and is 10 points ahead of the five-year average.  Yesterday, the funds sold 3000 contracts of corn, bought 1000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 1000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 109,450 contracts of corn, net long 3815 contracts of soybeans, and net short 104,250 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.8775, followed by 4.8225, Thursday’s low, and then the 4.75 area.  Initial resistance is at 4.90, the overnight high, followed by a cluster of tough resistance surrounding the psychological 5.00 mark, including 4.9875, the double-high from Thursday and Friday, 4.99, the high for the month charted on the 6th, and 4.9950, the eight-week high charted on August 29th.  November soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 12.8550, followed by Friday’s low, 12.7350, and then the four-month low charted on Thursday, 12.5050.  Initial resistance is at 12.9425, the overnight high, followed by 12.9975, Thursday’s high, and the psychological 13.00 level.  Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Tuesday.

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Nov 01, 2023
Grains were mixed, with corn down and beans up.
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Corn and soybean futures stayed close to unchanged overnight.
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Corn and soybeans both traded higher today.