MarketEdge AM Comments
May 11, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. July corn finished the overnight session off 4 cents, settling at 5.90. July soybeans were off 12 cents, trading at 13.92. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 330 points, trading at 101.807. June crude oil is off 28 cents, trading at $72.28 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 76 points, trading at 33,526. Corn and soybean futures remain under plenty of pressure from rapid planting progress, favorable US Midwest weather, struggling demand, a higher US Dollar, and anticipation of a bearish report from USDA tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, at 11am, USDA will release the May WASDE Report. Traders expect old crop carryout projections for both corn and soybeans to increase slightly. They also expect a massive new crop corn carryout projection. The average trade estimate for the 2023/24 corn carryout projection is 2.094 billion bushels. The range of trade estimates runs as high as 2.462 billion bushels! This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Weekly sales bookings for both corn and soybeans were disappointing. Last week, 257,300MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is at the bottom end of the range of trade expectations, is down noticeably from the previous week’s sales, and is 11% higher than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 83,100MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is also on the lower end of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,146,100MT. This figure is 33% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 8% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, China, Colombia, and South Korea. Last week, 62,200MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is nearly 100,000MT lower than the lowest trade estimate, is 79% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 68% lower than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 50,100MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. This figure is at the bottom end of the range of trade expectations. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 411,000MT. This figure is 27% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 18% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Indonesia, Mexico, China, the Netherlands, and Japan. Yesterday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, sold 4000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 2000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 108,785 contracts of corn, net long 50,990 contracts of soybeans, and net short 122,860 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, July corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 5.90, followed by yesterday’s low, 5.79, and then the 16-month low charted last Wednesday, 5.6925. Initial resistance is at 5.96, yesterday’s high, followed by the psychological 6.00 mark, which was also Monday’s high. July soybeans charted a new 1 ½ month low overnight, at 13.9150. That level now stands as initial support, followed by 13.8375, the 8-month low charted on March 24th. Initial resistance is at the key 14.00 mark, followed by 14.0525, the overnight high, and then 14.4675, the two-week high charted on Monday. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. July corn finished the overnight session off 4 cents, settling at 5.90. July soybeans were off 12 cents, trading at 13.92. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 330 points, trading at 101.807. June crude oil is off 28 cents, trading at $72.28 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 76 points, trading at 33,526. Corn and soybean futures remain under plenty of pressure from rapid planting progress, favorable US Midwest weather, struggling demand, a higher US Dollar, and anticipation of a bearish report from USDA tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, at 11am, USDA will release the May WASDE Report. Traders expect old crop carryout projections for both corn and soybeans to increase slightly. They also expect a massive new crop corn carryout projection. The average trade estimate for the 2023/24 corn carryout projection is 2.094 billion bushels. The range of trade estimates runs as high as 2.462 billion bushels! This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Weekly sales bookings for both corn and soybeans were disappointing. Last week, 257,300MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is at the bottom end of the range of trade expectations, is down noticeably from the previous week’s sales, and is 11% higher than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 83,100MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is also on the lower end of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,146,100MT. This figure is 33% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 8% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, China, Colombia, and South Korea. Last week, 62,200MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is nearly 100,000MT lower than the lowest trade estimate, is 79% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 68% lower than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 50,100MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. This figure is at the bottom end of the range of trade expectations. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 411,000MT. This figure is 27% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 18% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Indonesia, Mexico, China, the Netherlands, and Japan. Yesterday, the funds bought 2000 contracts of corn, sold 4000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 2000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 108,785 contracts of corn, net long 50,990 contracts of soybeans, and net short 122,860 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, July corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 5.90, followed by yesterday’s low, 5.79, and then the 16-month low charted last Wednesday, 5.6925. Initial resistance is at 5.96, yesterday’s high, followed by the psychological 6.00 mark, which was also Monday’s high. July soybeans charted a new 1 ½ month low overnight, at 13.9150. That level now stands as initial support, followed by 13.8375, the 8-month low charted on March 24th. Initial resistance is at the key 14.00 mark, followed by 14.0525, the overnight high, and then 14.4675, the two-week high charted on Monday. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday.