MarketEdge AM Comments
May 18, 2023
(Pil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. July corn finished the overnight session off 11 ¼ cents, settling at 5.5025. July soybeans were off 10 ¾ cents, settling at 13.2625. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is up 370 points, trading at 103.252. June crude oil is off 24 cents, trading at $72.59 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are higher, except copper. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off one point, trading at 33,477. The same track that has been playing on repeat since Tuesday continued to play overnight. Corn and soybean futures continue to careen lower, pressured by rapid planting progress, a friendly forecast for the Corn Belt for the balance of May, dismal export demand, and a stronger US Dollar. Unfortunately, there is a general lack of friendly news out there regarding grains and oilseeds that could inspire any kind of meaningful rally. This morning’s Export Sales Report did not salve the gaping wound whatsoever. Weekly sales bookings for both old crop corn and soybeans were downright depressing, to say the least. Last week, for the current marketing year, corn sales cancellations outweighed new sales, resulting in a weekly net sales figure of -339,000MT. This figure is a marketing year low, is on the bottom end of the range of trade expectations, and is down noticeably from both the previous week and the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 74,000MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is on the bottom end of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,086,500MT. This figure is 5% lower than the previous week’s sales and is 17% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, China, Japan, the Dominican Republic, and Costa Rica. Last week, a measly 17,000MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the very bottom end of the range of trade estimates, is 73% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 89% lower than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 663,800MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. This figure is above the highest trade expectation and the majority of the sales were to “unknown destinations” and China. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 189,100MT. This figure is 54% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 60% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Egypt, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Venezuela. Yesterday, the funds sold 12,000 contracts of corn, sold 12,000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 12,000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 128,505 contracts of corn, net long 13,765 contracts of soybeans, and net short 127,650 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, July corn charted a fresh 17-month low overnight, at 5.50. That level now stands as initial support, followed by what’s left of a chart gap from September 27, 2021, 5.1625-5.1650. Initial resistance is at 5.6175, the overnight high, followed by 5.8275, yesterday’s high. July soybeans charted a new 9 ½ month low overnight, at 13.2525. That level now stands as initial support, followed by the psychological 13.00 mark. Initial resistance is at 13.4250, the overnight high, followed by 13.50. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. July corn finished the overnight session off 11 ¼ cents, settling at 5.5025. July soybeans were off 10 ¾ cents, settling at 13.2625. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is up 370 points, trading at 103.252. June crude oil is off 24 cents, trading at $72.59 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are higher, except copper. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off one point, trading at 33,477. The same track that has been playing on repeat since Tuesday continued to play overnight. Corn and soybean futures continue to careen lower, pressured by rapid planting progress, a friendly forecast for the Corn Belt for the balance of May, dismal export demand, and a stronger US Dollar. Unfortunately, there is a general lack of friendly news out there regarding grains and oilseeds that could inspire any kind of meaningful rally. This morning’s Export Sales Report did not salve the gaping wound whatsoever. Weekly sales bookings for both old crop corn and soybeans were downright depressing, to say the least. Last week, for the current marketing year, corn sales cancellations outweighed new sales, resulting in a weekly net sales figure of -339,000MT. This figure is a marketing year low, is on the bottom end of the range of trade expectations, and is down noticeably from both the previous week and the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 74,000MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is on the bottom end of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,086,500MT. This figure is 5% lower than the previous week’s sales and is 17% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, China, Japan, the Dominican Republic, and Costa Rica. Last week, a measly 17,000MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the very bottom end of the range of trade estimates, is 73% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 89% lower than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 663,800MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. This figure is above the highest trade expectation and the majority of the sales were to “unknown destinations” and China. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 189,100MT. This figure is 54% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 60% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Egypt, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Venezuela. Yesterday, the funds sold 12,000 contracts of corn, sold 12,000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 12,000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 128,505 contracts of corn, net long 13,765 contracts of soybeans, and net short 127,650 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, July corn charted a fresh 17-month low overnight, at 5.50. That level now stands as initial support, followed by what’s left of a chart gap from September 27, 2021, 5.1625-5.1650. Initial resistance is at 5.6175, the overnight high, followed by 5.8275, yesterday’s high. July soybeans charted a new 9 ½ month low overnight, at 13.2525. That level now stands as initial support, followed by the psychological 13.00 mark. Initial resistance is at 13.4250, the overnight high, followed by 13.50. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday.