MarketEdge AM Comments

May 02, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn futures were slightly lower and soybean futures were higher overnight.  July corn finished the overnight session off a penny, settling at 5.8350.  July soybeans were up 8 cents, settling at 14.3550.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is up 45 points, trading at $102.196.  June crude oil is off 18 cents, trading at $75.48 per barrel.  Precious metals are lower, except gold.  Industrial metals are higher, except copper.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 81 points, trading at 34,071.  Soybean futures were obviously the upside leader overnight, shrugging off rapid planting progress figures and trading higher anyway.  Confidence in the soybean complex can be attributed to some impressive crush figures reported yesterday.  USDA reported March soybean crush at 198 million bushels.  This figure is higher than the average trade estimate, is a record for the month of March, is only 200,000 bushels below the record set for any month of the year in December 2021, is 24.1 million bushels higher than February’s crush figure, and is 5.1 million bushels higher than last March’s crush figure.  Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress Report showed corn planting progress running in line with average pace and soybean planting progress running ahead of schedule.  USDA reported that 26% of the nation’s corn crop had been planted as of Sunday night.  This figure is a 12 point advancement week-over-week, is 13 points ahead of last year at this time, and is on target with the five-year average.  USDA reported that 19% of the nation’s soybean crop had been planted as of Sunday night.  This figure is a ten point advancement week-over-week, is 12 points ahead of last year at this time, and is eight points ahead of the five-year average.  Yesterday, the funds sold 2000 contracts of corn, bought 3000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 5000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 32,060 contracts of corn, net long 90,130 contracts of soybeans, and net short 125,160 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, July corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 5.8275, followed by 5.7750, yesterday’s low, and then the 15-month low charted on Friday, 5.72.  Initial resistance is at 5.89, the overnight high, followed by the psychological 6.00 mark, and then 6.12, Wednesday’s high.  July soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 14.2650, followed by the psychological 14.00 level, and then the one-month low charted on Friday, 13.9650.  Initial resistance is at 14.40, the overnight high, followed by 14.50, and then 14.77-14.7750, the April 20th chart gap.  Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Tuesday.

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