MarketEdge PM Comments

Jun 20, 2023

(Allison Ryan)

Grains were stronger on the overnights, but faded throughout daytime trade. September corn closed down a penny, while new crop was even. August beans were up ¾ c, and November was up ½ c.
  • The market is getting pulled in two different directions- the weather continues to be the big question mark, and whether the forecasted rain will come to fruition, compared to our lack of demand
  • As far as demand goes- we are out of the market globally; FOB values compared to South America have the US priced out through December on corn
  • The western corn belt received a more widespread rain over the weekend, whereas the eastern corn belt continues to be very dry
  • The short term forecast looks promising for the western corn belt; the long term forecast has potential for quite a bit of rain in the eastern corn belt- again, will it come to fruition?
  • In comparison to ’88, the market rallied based off of a hot and dry summer and peaked the 4th of July weekend; by the time fall arrived, 75% of the rally was given back
  • The market expected a drop in ratings this week- 3 points in corn and 2 on beans; we dropped 6 points on corn and 5 on beans as of 3 PM Tuesday
  • December corn hit a new high of 6.09 and November new high of 13.6475 on the overnights, but pushed back down pretty quickly after the open
  • June 30 is our next big report, including the quarterly grain stocks and acreage numbers- typically a volatile report
  • Ultimately, yield dictates all, and with the current demand, a decrease in yield for the ’23 crop doesn’t adjust our carryout all that much
  • Funds are projected to be roughly 100-150k contracts long, compared to short just a few short weeks ago
  • Crude and the Dow are down, while the Dollar is firmer
  • Visit with your originator about capitalizing on this weather rally, especially with lack of demand globally; we’re in much more profitable territory than we were a week and a half ago
Have a great evening.

Read More News

Jun 30, 2023
September corn closed down 35 cents at 4.8850 and December corn closed down 33 ¾ at 4.9475.
Jun 30, 2023
​Good Morning.  It is Report Day.  At 11am, USDA will release the highly anticipated Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Reports.
Jun 28, 2023
Grains continue their free fall today with rain continuing to fall and/or be forecasted for parts of the corn belt most needing a drink.