MarketEdge AM Comments

Jun 20, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures shot higher out of the gate last night following a three-day weekend before succumbing to profit-taking.  Since First Notice Day for July futures is next Friday and most end users have already rolled to September corn and August soybean futures, today I will begin reporting on September corn and August soybean futures as the “nearby” contracts for the purposes of this commentary.  September corn finished the overnight session off two cents, settling at 5.92.  August soybeans were off a penny, settling at 14.0650.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is off 33 points, trading at 102.489.  July crude oil is off 68 cents, trading at $71.10 per barrel.  Precious metals are all lower.  Industrial metals are lower, except copper.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 111 points, trading at 34,493.  The singular market driver as we round out the month of June will be weather.  Whatever the weather decides to do in the next 10 to 15 days will set up the trajectory of futures.  Over the weekend, some areas of the Corn Belt received welcome rainfall while others were left out.  It really has been a story of the “haves” and “have nots” so far this season.  Overall, the Corn Belt remains too dry and more rainfall is needed, however, extended forecast models are wetter and cooler as the calendar flips to July.  The main question is how much irreversible damage to the crop will occur between now and when the rains come and if they even come?  That’s the not so fun part of a weather market.  It really is anybody’s guess what will happen and the entire narrative can change at the drop of a hat.  So, keep your seatbelt fastened and your hands at ten and two because it’s likely to be a bumpy ride for the next two weeks or so.  On Friday, the funds bought 15,000 contracts of corn, bought 25,000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 10,000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net long 25,855 contracts of corn, net long 92,810 contracts of soybeans, and net short 101,550 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at the psychological 6.00 mark, followed closely by the four-month high charted overnight, 6.0450.  Initial support lies at the overnight low, 5.8525, followed by 5.50, and then the chart gap from June 12th, 5.2750-5.2975.  August soybeans face initial resistance at the two-month high charted overnight, 14.2150, followed by the highs from April 18th and April 3rd, 14.45 and 14.46, respectively.  Initial support lies at the psychological 14.00 level, followed closely by the overnight low, 13.96, and then 13.50.  Opening calls are steady/lower.
Have a great Tuesday.

Read More News

Jun 30, 2023
September corn closed down 35 cents at 4.8850 and December corn closed down 33 ¾ at 4.9475.
Jun 30, 2023
​Good Morning.  It is Report Day.  At 11am, USDA will release the highly anticipated Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Reports.
Jun 28, 2023
Grains continue their free fall today with rain continuing to fall and/or be forecasted for parts of the corn belt most needing a drink.