MarketEdge AM Comments
Jun 15, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. July corn finished the overnight session up 8 ¼ cents, settling at 6.16. July soybeans were up 17 ½ cents, settling at 14.0575. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 64 points, trading at 103.012. July crude oil is up 64 cents, trading at $68.91 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are higher, except copper. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 63 points, trading at 34,221. Dry weather throughout much of the Corn Belt and concerns over the impact it is having on crop conditions supported corn and soybean futures overnight. There is rain forecasted for the Corn Belt over the weekend, however, coverage is questionable at this point. Extended weather models call for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation throughout the remainder of the month of June. Given all of that, there is certainly good reason for traders to add weather risk premium to futures at this time. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Old crop corn and soybean sales bookings fell within the ranges of trade expectations. Last week, 273,300MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is in the middle of the range of trade estimates, is 58% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is up noticeably from the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 21,100MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is on the bottom end of the range of trade expectations. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,192,600MT. This figure is 4% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 10% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, China, Colombia, and South Korea. Last week, 478,400MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade estimates and is up noticeably from both the previous week’s sales and the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 48,500MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is below the lowest trade estimate. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 141,300MT. This figure is 43% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 41% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Spain, Mexico, Indonesia, Venezuela, and China. Yesterday, the funds sold 1000 contracts of corn, sold 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 5000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 44,545 contracts of corn, net long 33,950 contracts of soybeans, and net short 122,280 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, July corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 6.1725, followed by the eight-week high charted on Tuesday, 6.25, and then the 3 ½ month high charted on April 18th, 6.4750. Initial support lies at 6.0150, yesterday’s low, followed closely by the psychological 6.00 mark, and then 5.95, last week’s low charted on Monday. July soybeans face initial resistance at the overnight high, 14.0925, followed by the one-month high charted on Tuesday, 14.1550, and then 14.4675, the seven-week high charted on May 8th. Initial support lies at the overnight low, 13.8750, followed by 13.50, and then last week’s low charted on Tuesday, 13.4025. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. July corn finished the overnight session up 8 ¼ cents, settling at 6.16. July soybeans were up 17 ½ cents, settling at 14.0575. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 64 points, trading at 103.012. July crude oil is up 64 cents, trading at $68.91 per barrel. Precious metals are all lower. Industrial metals are higher, except copper. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 63 points, trading at 34,221. Dry weather throughout much of the Corn Belt and concerns over the impact it is having on crop conditions supported corn and soybean futures overnight. There is rain forecasted for the Corn Belt over the weekend, however, coverage is questionable at this point. Extended weather models call for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation throughout the remainder of the month of June. Given all of that, there is certainly good reason for traders to add weather risk premium to futures at this time. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Old crop corn and soybean sales bookings fell within the ranges of trade expectations. Last week, 273,300MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is in the middle of the range of trade estimates, is 58% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is up noticeably from the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 21,100MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is on the bottom end of the range of trade expectations. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,192,600MT. This figure is 4% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 10% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, China, Colombia, and South Korea. Last week, 478,400MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade estimates and is up noticeably from both the previous week’s sales and the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 48,500MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is below the lowest trade estimate. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 141,300MT. This figure is 43% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 41% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Spain, Mexico, Indonesia, Venezuela, and China. Yesterday, the funds sold 1000 contracts of corn, sold 2000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 5000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 44,545 contracts of corn, net long 33,950 contracts of soybeans, and net short 122,280 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, July corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 6.1725, followed by the eight-week high charted on Tuesday, 6.25, and then the 3 ½ month high charted on April 18th, 6.4750. Initial support lies at 6.0150, yesterday’s low, followed closely by the psychological 6.00 mark, and then 5.95, last week’s low charted on Monday. July soybeans face initial resistance at the overnight high, 14.0925, followed by the one-month high charted on Tuesday, 14.1550, and then 14.4675, the seven-week high charted on May 8th. Initial support lies at the overnight low, 13.8750, followed by 13.50, and then last week’s low charted on Tuesday, 13.4025. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Thursday.