MarketEdge AM Comments

Jun 13, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight.  July corn finished the overnight session up 6 cents, settling at 6.2325.  July soybeans were up 20 ¾ cents, settling at 13.9350.  In the outside markets, as of 7:50am:  The US Dollar Index is off 438 points, trading at 103.216.  July crude oil is up $1.66, trading at $68.78 per barrel.  Precious metals are higher, except platinum.  Industrial metals are lower, except copper.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 19 points, trading at 34,408.  Declining crop conditions ratings and weather uncertainty propped up corn and soybean futures overnight.  Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report featured another consecutive week of declining corn and soybean crop conditions ratings.  Nationally, the corn crop condition rating was reported at 61% good to excellent.  This figure is a three-point decline from last week, is 11 points behind last year at this time, and is eight points behind the five-year average.  The national soybean crop condition rating was also lowered by three points from last week, to 59% good to excellent.  This figure is 11 points behind both last year at this time and the five-year average.  Extended forecast models are not in agreement as to whether or not the current dry weather pattern will shift and the heart of the Corn Belt could receive much needed widespread rainfall.  With so much uncertainty and a crop that is certainly in need of a drink, it is not surprising that traders are keen to add weather premium to futures.  This is most definitely a weather market, so keep on the edge of your seat as things can and do change on a dime.  Yesterday, the funds bought 6000 contracts of corn, sold 5000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 2000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 43,545 contracts of corn, net long 25,950 contracts of soybeans, and net short 119,280 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, July corn charted a new seven-week high overnight, at 6.2475.  This level now stands as initial resistance, followed by the 3 ½ month high charted on April 18th, 6.4750.  Initial support lies at 6.13, the overnight low, followed by the psychological 6.00 level, and then 5.95, last week’s low charted on Monday.  July soybeans charted a new four-week high overnight, at 13.95.  That level now stands as initial resistance, followed by the psychological 14.00 mark, and then 14.4675, the seven-week high charted on May 8th.  Initial support lies at 13.7175, the overnight low, followed by 13.50, and then last week’s low charted on Tuesday, 13.4025.  Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Tuesday.

Read More News

Jun 30, 2023
September corn closed down 35 cents at 4.8850 and December corn closed down 33 ¾ at 4.9475.
Jun 30, 2023
​Good Morning.  It is Report Day.  At 11am, USDA will release the highly anticipated Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Reports.
Jun 28, 2023
Grains continue their free fall today with rain continuing to fall and/or be forecasted for parts of the corn belt most needing a drink.