MarketEdge AM Comments
Jun 23, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were sharply lower overnight. September corn finished the overnight session off 21 cents, settling at 5.96. August soybeans were off 25 cents, settling at 13.9325. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 416 points, trading at 102.802. August crude oil is off $1.11, trading at $68.40 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except silver. Industrial metals are lower, except zinc. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 139 points, trading at 34,071. Profit-taking following Wednesday’s impressive rally continued overnight. A sharply higher US Dollar Index and sharply lower crude oil futures are not helping matters, nor is a wetter forecast developing. Of course, as with any weather market, the proof will be in the pudding when it comes to a weather forecast. Nevertheless, as of this morning, some of the driest areas of the Corn Belt from I-35 eastward are forecasted to receive some much needed rainfall over the weekend and there are more chances next week. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Weekly corn sales bookings weren’t noteworthy whatsoever and weekly soybean sales bookings were within the range of trade expectations. Last week, a measly 36,000MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the very bottom end of the range of trade estimates, is 87% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 74% lower than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 47,100MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is on the very bottom end of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 668,300MT. This figure is 44% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 50% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, China, Japan, Panama, and the Dominican Republic. Last week, 457,500MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade estimates, is 4% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 98% higher than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 168,800MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. This figure is in the middle of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 387,800MT. This figure is up noticeably from the previous week’s shipments and is 71% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Taiwan, Egypt, China, Nepal, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds sold 5000 contracts of corn, sold 10,000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 4000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 42,855 contracts of corn, net long 107,810 contracts of soybeans, and net short 79,550 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, September corn failed to hold the psychological 6.00 mark overnight. Further support lies at the overnight low, 5.9350, followed by 5.50. Initial resistance is at the overnight high, 6.13, followed by the six-month high charted on Wednesday, 6.2475. August soybeans failed to hold the psychological 14.00 level overnight. Further support lies at the overnight low, 13.8975, followed by 13.50. Initial resistance is at 14.1825, the overnight high, followed by the three-month high charted on Wednesday, 14.47. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were sharply lower overnight. September corn finished the overnight session off 21 cents, settling at 5.96. August soybeans were off 25 cents, settling at 13.9325. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 416 points, trading at 102.802. August crude oil is off $1.11, trading at $68.40 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except silver. Industrial metals are lower, except zinc. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 139 points, trading at 34,071. Profit-taking following Wednesday’s impressive rally continued overnight. A sharply higher US Dollar Index and sharply lower crude oil futures are not helping matters, nor is a wetter forecast developing. Of course, as with any weather market, the proof will be in the pudding when it comes to a weather forecast. Nevertheless, as of this morning, some of the driest areas of the Corn Belt from I-35 eastward are forecasted to receive some much needed rainfall over the weekend and there are more chances next week. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Weekly corn sales bookings weren’t noteworthy whatsoever and weekly soybean sales bookings were within the range of trade expectations. Last week, a measly 36,000MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the very bottom end of the range of trade estimates, is 87% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 74% lower than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 47,100MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is on the very bottom end of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 668,300MT. This figure is 44% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 50% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, China, Japan, Panama, and the Dominican Republic. Last week, 457,500MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade estimates, is 4% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 98% higher than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 168,800MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. This figure is in the middle of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 387,800MT. This figure is up noticeably from the previous week’s shipments and is 71% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Taiwan, Egypt, China, Nepal, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds sold 5000 contracts of corn, sold 10,000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 4000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 42,855 contracts of corn, net long 107,810 contracts of soybeans, and net short 79,550 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, September corn failed to hold the psychological 6.00 mark overnight. Further support lies at the overnight low, 5.9350, followed by 5.50. Initial resistance is at the overnight high, 6.13, followed by the six-month high charted on Wednesday, 6.2475. August soybeans failed to hold the psychological 14.00 level overnight. Further support lies at the overnight low, 13.8975, followed by 13.50. Initial resistance is at 14.1825, the overnight high, followed by the three-month high charted on Wednesday, 14.47. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.