MarketEdge AM Comments

Jun 02, 2023


(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn futures were lower overnight while soybean futures were higher.  July corn finished the overnight session off 7 ½ cents, settling at 5.85.  July soybeans were up a quarter of a penny, settling at 13.2975.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is off 43 points, trading at 103.517.  July crude oil is up $1.39, trading at $71.49 per barrel.  Precious metals are higher, except platinum.  Industrial metals are higher, except tin.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 138 points, trading at 33,241.  Corn futures were pressured by speculative selling heading into the weekend.  Meanwhile, soybean futures were supported by firm energy markets.  The GFS and the Euro weather models disagree about the prospects for rainfall across the Corn Belt next week.  One model calls for widespread precipitation while the other calls for only spotty coverage.  In the meantime, scattered showers have blessed some parched areas of the Belt with welcome rainfall but totally missed other areas in need of a drink.  Traders will continue to monitor weather and changes to the forecast models daily as we head through the growing season.  Meanwhile, regardless of what the weather does, futures are under tremendous pressure due to lackluster demand.  Speaking of demand, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report this morning.  While weekly sales bookings were within the ranges of trade expectations, they certainly were nothing to write home about.  Last week, 186,700MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year.  This figure is down noticeably from both the previous week’s sales and the prior four-week average.  For the 2023/24 marketing year, 312,600MT of corn was booked for sale last week.  Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,434,800MT.  This figure is 5% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 6% higher than the prior four-week average.  Primary destinations were China, Mexico, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea.  Last week, 123,400MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year.  This figure is 7% higher than the previous week’s sales and is 16% higher than the prior four-week average.  For the 2023/24 marketing year, 301,000MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week.  Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 230,800MT.  This figure is 20% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 34% lower than the prior four-week average.  Primary destinations were Mexico, Indonesia, Japan, Colombia, and Costa Rica.  Yesterday, the funds bought 4000 contracts of corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 5000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 88,650 contracts of corn, net short 290 contracts of soybeans, and net short 126,050 contracts of wheat.  This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday.  From a chart perspective, July corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 5.82, followed by Wednesday’s low, 5.7750, and then the 5.50 area.  Initial resistance is at the psychological 6.00 mark, followed closely by yesterday’s high and the one-month high charted one week ago, 6.06 and 6.0675, respectively.  July soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.22, followed by the psychological 13.00 level, and then the 16-month low charted on Wednesday, 12.7075.  Initial resistance is at 13.3525, yesterday’s high, followed by 13.4350, last Friday’s high, and then 13.50.  Opening calls are mixed.  Following are 24-hour rainfall totals reported by River Valley Coop employees for their respective Coop locations and/or homes.  They really highlight the scattered nature of these recent precipitation events.
CITY COUNTY STATE RAIN TOTAL
WYOMING JONES IA 1.00
MARTELLE JONES IA 0.20
OLIN JONES IA 0.70
STANWOOD CEDAR IA 1.00
LOWDEN CEDAR IA 1.00
TIPTON CEDAR IA 0.40
CALAMUS CLINTON IA 0.00
DEWITT CLINTON IA 0.00
PORT BYRON ROCK ISLAND IL 0.00
DEER GROVE WHITESIDE IL 0.40
WALNUT BUREAU IL TRACE
THOMAS BUREAU IL 0.10
MANLIUS BUREAU IL 0.20
PRINCETON BUREAU IL 0.00
WYANET BUREAU IL 0.00
SHEFFIELD BUREAU IL 0.00
NEPONSET BUREAU IL 0.00
TISKILWA BUREAU IL 0.00
KASBEER BUREAU IL 0.00
CAMP GROVE MARSHALL IL 0.10
OSCEOLA STARK IL 0.00
BRADFORD STARK IL 0.60
CAMBRIDGE HENRY IL 0.00
GALVA HENRY IL 0.00
ANNAWAN HENRY IL 0.00
EDELSTEIN PEORIA IL 0.00
 
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.
 
 

Read More News

Jun 30, 2023
September corn closed down 35 cents at 4.8850 and December corn closed down 33 ¾ at 4.9475.
Jun 30, 2023
​Good Morning.  It is Report Day.  At 11am, USDA will release the highly anticipated Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Reports.
Jun 28, 2023
Grains continue their free fall today with rain continuing to fall and/or be forecasted for parts of the corn belt most needing a drink.