MarketEdge AM Comments

Jul 24, 2023

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight.  September corn finished the overnight session up 21 cents, settling at 5.48.  August soybeans were up 15 ½ cents, settling at 15.1650.  In the outside markets, as of 7:45am:  The US Dollar Index is up 130 points, trading at 101.160.  September crude oil is up 56 cents, trading at $77.63 per barrel.  Precious metals are mixed.  Industrial metals are lower, except aluminum.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 14 points, trading at 35,412.  Corn and wheat futures were the upside leader overnight, supported by escalating conflict in the Black Sea.  Since the expiration of the Black Sea Export Agreement one week ago, Russia has ramped up its assault on Ukrainian sea ports.  Over the weekend, Russia expanded the assault to ports on the Danube River, next door to the Romanian border.  Although dry weather in the US Midwest is certainly lending support to futures, the current behavior of grains and oilseeds is primarily attributable to the ongoing conflict in the former Soviet Union.  What a mess!  Whatever happens next is anybody’s guess and it appears as if both Russia and Ukraine have dug their heels in and are in this for the long haul.  The end game is as clear as mud.  As a result, the global grain supply chain will likely remain disrupted by this conflict for quite some time.  On Friday, the funds sold 5000 contracts of corn, sold 1000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 8000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 41,150 contracts of corn, net long 95,970 contracts of soybeans, and net short 51,010 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at the double-high from overnight and Wednesday, 5.5750, followed by the psychological 6.00 mark, and then 6.2475, the 7 ½ month high charted on June 21st.  Initial support lies at 5.2250, Friday’s low, followed by the psychological 5.00 level, and then 4.74, the double-low charted on July 12th and 13th which is also a two-year contract low.  August soybeans face initial resistance at 15.2325, the 13-month high charted overnight.  Initial support lies at the psychological 15.00 level, which was also the overnight low, followed by last week’s low charted on Tuesday, 14.7425, and then 14.50.  Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Monday.

Read More News

Jul 31, 2023
​Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were sharply lower overnight. 
Jul 28, 2023
The market closed in the red to end the week.
Jul 28, 2023
​Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.