MarketEdge AM Comments
Jul 13, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. September corn finished the overnight session up 3 cents, settling at 4.7925. August soybeans were up 22 ½ cents, settling at 14.6675. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 265 points, trading at 100.256. August crude oil is off 10 cents, trading at $75.65 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except palladium. Industrial metals are all higher. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 74 points, trading at 34,624. There were several big bearish surprises on yesterday’s WASDE Report. First of all, USDA did not trim the corn yield figure as much as the trade had expected and the soybean yield figure was not lowered at all. Not only did the soybean yield figure remain unchanged instead of being lowered slightly, but the 2022/23 soybean carryout projection unexpectedly increased. This, along with reductions to the crush and export estimates, resulted in a 2023/24 soybean carryout projection that was much higher than expected, 300 million bushels. Don’t get me wrong, a 300 million bushel carryout is not abundant, by any means, however, it creates far less of a panic scenario than the 199 million bushel average trade estimate. After the report, corn and soybean futures were sharply lower in reaction to these surprises. Overnight, futures firmed, earning back much of what was lost in yesterday’s post-report reaction. Some rather friendly corn figures on this morning’s weekly Export Sales Report no doubt helped to support the overnight rally in the last 15 minutes of trading. Last week, 468,400MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is above the highest trade estimate, is 86% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is up noticeably from the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 470,800MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is also above the highest trade expectation. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 492,700MT. This figure is 30% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 38% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Costa Rica, Canada, and Colombia. Last week, 80,600MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is at the bottom end of the range of trade estimates, is 57% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 76% lower than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 209,200MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. This figure is on the bottom end of the range of trade expectations. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 338,600MT. This figure is 27% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 37% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Spain, the Netherlands, Japan, Mexico, and Taiwan. Yesterday, the funds sold 10,000 contracts of corn, sold 10,000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 10,000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 10,360 contracts of corn, net long 82,190 contracts of soybeans, and net short 56,400 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 4.8275, followed by the psychological 5.00 mark, and then 5.0225, Friday’s high. Initial support lies at the double-low from overnight and yesterday, 4.74, which is also a new two-year contract low. August soybeans face initial resistance at 14.6925, the overnight high, followed by yesterday’s high, 14.8975, and then the psychological 15.00 mark. Initial support lies in the 14.40 area, followed by 14.25, Friday’s low. Opening calls are higher. Following are 24-hour rainfall totals reported by River Valley Coop employees for their respective Coop locations and/or homes:
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. September corn finished the overnight session up 3 cents, settling at 4.7925. August soybeans were up 22 ½ cents, settling at 14.6675. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 265 points, trading at 100.256. August crude oil is off 10 cents, trading at $75.65 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except palladium. Industrial metals are all higher. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 74 points, trading at 34,624. There were several big bearish surprises on yesterday’s WASDE Report. First of all, USDA did not trim the corn yield figure as much as the trade had expected and the soybean yield figure was not lowered at all. Not only did the soybean yield figure remain unchanged instead of being lowered slightly, but the 2022/23 soybean carryout projection unexpectedly increased. This, along with reductions to the crush and export estimates, resulted in a 2023/24 soybean carryout projection that was much higher than expected, 300 million bushels. Don’t get me wrong, a 300 million bushel carryout is not abundant, by any means, however, it creates far less of a panic scenario than the 199 million bushel average trade estimate. After the report, corn and soybean futures were sharply lower in reaction to these surprises. Overnight, futures firmed, earning back much of what was lost in yesterday’s post-report reaction. Some rather friendly corn figures on this morning’s weekly Export Sales Report no doubt helped to support the overnight rally in the last 15 minutes of trading. Last week, 468,400MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is above the highest trade estimate, is 86% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is up noticeably from the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 470,800MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is also above the highest trade expectation. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 492,700MT. This figure is 30% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 38% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Costa Rica, Canada, and Colombia. Last week, 80,600MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is at the bottom end of the range of trade estimates, is 57% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 76% lower than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 209,200MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. This figure is on the bottom end of the range of trade expectations. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 338,600MT. This figure is 27% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 37% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Spain, the Netherlands, Japan, Mexico, and Taiwan. Yesterday, the funds sold 10,000 contracts of corn, sold 10,000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 10,000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 10,360 contracts of corn, net long 82,190 contracts of soybeans, and net short 56,400 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 4.8275, followed by the psychological 5.00 mark, and then 5.0225, Friday’s high. Initial support lies at the double-low from overnight and yesterday, 4.74, which is also a new two-year contract low. August soybeans face initial resistance at 14.6925, the overnight high, followed by yesterday’s high, 14.8975, and then the psychological 15.00 mark. Initial support lies in the 14.40 area, followed by 14.25, Friday’s low. Opening calls are higher. Following are 24-hour rainfall totals reported by River Valley Coop employees for their respective Coop locations and/or homes:
| CITY | COUNTY | STATE | RAIN TOTAL |
| MASONVILLE | DELAWARE | IA | 2.00 |
| RYAN | DELAWARE | IA | 0.40 |
| WYOMING | JONES | IA | 1.10 |
| MARTELLE | JONES | IA | 0.50 |
| OLIN | JONES | IA | 0.80 |
| LOWDEN | CEDAR | IA | 0.90 |
| CALAMUS | CLINTON | IA | 1.50 |
| DEWITT | CLINTON | IA | 1.25 |
| BLUE GRASS | SCOTT | IA | 1.10 |
| WILTON | CEDAR/MUSCATINE | IA | 1.30 |
| DEER GROVE | WHITESIDE | IL | 1.20 |
| WALNUT | BUREAU | IL | 0.80 |
| THOMAS | BUREAU | IL | 1.20 |
| MANLIUS | BUREAU | IL | 0.50 |
| PRINCETON | BUREAU | IL | 1.00 |
| WYANET | BUREAU | IL | 1.50 |
| SHEFFIELD | BUREAU | IL | 1.50 |
| NEPONSET | BUREAU | IL | 1.00 |
| TISKILWA | BUREAU | IL | 1.20 |
| CAMP GROVE | MARSHALL | IL | 1.00 |
| OSCEOLA | STARK | IL | 1.00 |
| GALVA | HENRY | IL | 0.30 |
| CAMBRIDGE | HENRY | IL | 1.10 |
| GENESEO | HENRY | IL | 2.50 |
| HOOPPOLE | HENRY | IL | 4.00 |
| EDELSTEIN | PEORIA | IL | 0.70 |
Have a great Thursday.