MarketEdge AM Comments
Jul 07, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. September corn finished the overnight session off 3 cents, settling at 4.96. August soybeans were off 8 ¼ cents, settling at 14.40. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 506 points, trading at 102.660. August crude oil is up 37 cents, trading at $72.17. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are higher, except aluminum. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 13 points, trading at 34,144. Corn and soybean futures were under pressure overnight due to current radar and the forecast for the next few days. A large system delivering meaningful precipitation is currently moving across Eastern Nebraska and South Dakota. It is on track to cover most of Iowa, Southern Minnesota, and Northern Illinois in the coming hours. Beyond this system, more rainfall is forecasted for the heart of the Corn Belt next week. Extended forecast models are also pressuring futures as they call for cooler and wetter weather for the Corn Belt throughout July. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Although still not impressive, weekly corn sales bookings were much improved. Old crop soybean sales bookings were nothing special, but new crop sales were impressive. Last week, 251,700MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is 79% higher than the previous week’s sales, is 62% higher than the prior four-week average, and is in the middle of the range of trade estimates. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 418,000MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade expectations. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 707,500MT. This figure is 17% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 24% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Japan, Mexico, Guatemala, China, and Nicaragua. Last week, 187,800MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is 17% lower than the previous week’s sales, is 45% lower than the prior four-week average, and is on the lower end of the range of trade estimates. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 592,800MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. This figure exceeds the highest trade expectation by nearly 200,000MT. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 266,100MT. This figure is 39% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 10% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Indonesia, Japan, the Netherlands, Mexico, and Costa Rica. Yesterday, the funds bought 8000 contracts of corn, sold 4000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 18,760 contracts of corn, net long 103,060 contracts of soybeans, and net short 67,930 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.9275, followed by the 21-month contract low charted on Wednesday, 4.79. Initial resistance is at the psychological 5.00 mark, followed closely by the overnight high, 5.0225. August soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 14.35, followed by the psychological 14.00 level. Initial resistance is at 14.50, followed by 15.00, and then the four-month high charted on Monday, 15.0475. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. September corn finished the overnight session off 3 cents, settling at 4.96. August soybeans were off 8 ¼ cents, settling at 14.40. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 506 points, trading at 102.660. August crude oil is up 37 cents, trading at $72.17. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are higher, except aluminum. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 13 points, trading at 34,144. Corn and soybean futures were under pressure overnight due to current radar and the forecast for the next few days. A large system delivering meaningful precipitation is currently moving across Eastern Nebraska and South Dakota. It is on track to cover most of Iowa, Southern Minnesota, and Northern Illinois in the coming hours. Beyond this system, more rainfall is forecasted for the heart of the Corn Belt next week. Extended forecast models are also pressuring futures as they call for cooler and wetter weather for the Corn Belt throughout July. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Although still not impressive, weekly corn sales bookings were much improved. Old crop soybean sales bookings were nothing special, but new crop sales were impressive. Last week, 251,700MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is 79% higher than the previous week’s sales, is 62% higher than the prior four-week average, and is in the middle of the range of trade estimates. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 418,000MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade expectations. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 707,500MT. This figure is 17% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 24% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Japan, Mexico, Guatemala, China, and Nicaragua. Last week, 187,800MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is 17% lower than the previous week’s sales, is 45% lower than the prior four-week average, and is on the lower end of the range of trade estimates. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 592,800MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. This figure exceeds the highest trade expectation by nearly 200,000MT. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 266,100MT. This figure is 39% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 10% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Indonesia, Japan, the Netherlands, Mexico, and Costa Rica. Yesterday, the funds bought 8000 contracts of corn, sold 4000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 18,760 contracts of corn, net long 103,060 contracts of soybeans, and net short 67,930 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, September corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.9275, followed by the 21-month contract low charted on Wednesday, 4.79. Initial resistance is at the psychological 5.00 mark, followed closely by the overnight high, 5.0225. August soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 14.35, followed by the psychological 14.00 level. Initial resistance is at 14.50, followed by 15.00, and then the four-month high charted on Monday, 15.0475. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.