MarketEdge AM Comments
Jul 27, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures finished the overnight session higher. Since First Notice Day for August soybean futures is Monday and many end-users have already rolled to the November contract, we will begin reporting on the November soybean contract as the “nearby” contract for the purposes of this commentary. September corn finished the overnight session up a quarter of a penny, settling at 5.4050. November soybeans were up 8 ¼ cents, settling at 14.2825. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is up 56 points, trading at 100.943. September crude oil is up 83 cents, trading at $79.61 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are lower, except tin. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 93 points, trading at 35,777. Aside from the August and September soybean contracts, corn and soybean futures were under pressure yesterday. Corn was pressured primarily by lower wheat futures. Overnight, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat were in recovery mode, pulling corn along. Soybean futures are higher this morning due to ongoing supply concerns. Weather continues to be monitored closely. The heart of the Corn Belt is forecasted to endure extreme heat and mostly dry weather throughout the rest of the week, however there is relief both for temperature and precipitation in the extended forecast. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Last week, 314,200MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is in the middle of the range of trade expectations, is 33% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 15% higher than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 335,800MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is in the middle of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 411,400MT. This figure is 7% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 25% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Japan, and El Salvador. Last week, 198,500MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is in the middle of the range of trade expectations, is up noticeably from the previous week’s sales, and is 73% higher than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 544,600MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 379,600MT. This figure is up noticeably from the previous week and is up 74% from the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were the Netherlands, Germany, Mexico, Spain, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds sold 10,000 contracts of corn, bought 8000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 10,000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 33,150 contracts of corn, net long 111,970 contracts of soybeans, and net short 31,010 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 5.4650, followed by the 5.50 level, and then 5.6450, the one-month high charted on Monday. Initial support lies at 5.36, the overnight low, followed by Friday’s low, 5.2250, and then the psychological 5.00 mark. November soybeans face initial resistance at 14.3125, the overnight high, followed by 14.35, the 13-month high charted on Monday that is also a double-high with May 31, 2022. Initial support lies at the overnight low, 14.1675, followed by the psychological 14.00 level, and then Friday’s low, 13.8525. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures finished the overnight session higher. Since First Notice Day for August soybean futures is Monday and many end-users have already rolled to the November contract, we will begin reporting on the November soybean contract as the “nearby” contract for the purposes of this commentary. September corn finished the overnight session up a quarter of a penny, settling at 5.4050. November soybeans were up 8 ¼ cents, settling at 14.2825. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is up 56 points, trading at 100.943. September crude oil is up 83 cents, trading at $79.61 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are lower, except tin. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 93 points, trading at 35,777. Aside from the August and September soybean contracts, corn and soybean futures were under pressure yesterday. Corn was pressured primarily by lower wheat futures. Overnight, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat were in recovery mode, pulling corn along. Soybean futures are higher this morning due to ongoing supply concerns. Weather continues to be monitored closely. The heart of the Corn Belt is forecasted to endure extreme heat and mostly dry weather throughout the rest of the week, however there is relief both for temperature and precipitation in the extended forecast. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Last week, 314,200MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is in the middle of the range of trade expectations, is 33% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 15% higher than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 335,800MT of corn was booked for sale last week. This figure is in the middle of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 411,400MT. This figure is 7% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 25% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Japan, and El Salvador. Last week, 198,500MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is in the middle of the range of trade expectations, is up noticeably from the previous week’s sales, and is 73% higher than the prior four-week average. For the 2023/24 marketing year, 544,600MT of soybeans were booked for sale last week. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 379,600MT. This figure is up noticeably from the previous week and is up 74% from the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were the Netherlands, Germany, Mexico, Spain, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds sold 10,000 contracts of corn, bought 8000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 10,000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 33,150 contracts of corn, net long 111,970 contracts of soybeans, and net short 31,010 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn faces initial resistance at the overnight high, 5.4650, followed by the 5.50 level, and then 5.6450, the one-month high charted on Monday. Initial support lies at 5.36, the overnight low, followed by Friday’s low, 5.2250, and then the psychological 5.00 mark. November soybeans face initial resistance at 14.3125, the overnight high, followed by 14.35, the 13-month high charted on Monday that is also a double-high with May 31, 2022. Initial support lies at the overnight low, 14.1675, followed by the psychological 14.00 level, and then Friday’s low, 13.8525. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Thursday.